ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 2:25 AM EDT
158
FXUS61 KILN 040625
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
225 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into early next
week. A cold front late Tuesday will bring showers followed by more
seasonable temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Anomalously strong upper level high will dominate the eastern U.S.
today. This ridge will continue to offer warm temperatures and dry
conditions. Early river valley fog will quickly improve with only
scattered fair weather cumulus clouds expected today. Temperatures
look to be 12-15 degrees above normal with highs in the mid and upper
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The center of the persistent upper level ridge will be located over
the east coast Sunday. Due to the extensive coverage of this ridge.
the region will remain well under its influence. Expect diurnally
driven cumulus clouds Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight to rage from the
lower 50s east to the upper 50s west. Warm highs on Sunday to
continue with readings generally topping out in the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday evening, surface high pressure and upper level ridging
will be drifting east off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina.
The weather pattern over the Ohio Valley will be shifting to
generally southerly flow at the surface, and southwesterly flow
aloft. This pattern shift will become a little more pronounced on
Monday, and especially on Tuesday, as a shortwave develops over the
northern plains and moves east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, increasing moisture will
bring precipitation chances to the region.
Some degree of diurnal activity may develop on Monday, though
precipitation chances appear most likely to remain focused to the
west and southwest of the ILN forecast area. However, there is high
confidence in widespread rainfall developing by Tuesday morning,
with a pronounced stream of 925mb-850mb theta-e advection aimed into
the Ohio Valley from the southern states. Combined with forcing from
the upper wave, as well as forcing later in the day from an
approaching cold front, this should allow for continued chances of
rain during the day. These chances will likely come to an end on
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, once the cold front has
moved through the region -- with cooler and drier air moving in
behind it. There will likely be enough instability for some embedded
thunder on Tuesday, though both instability and shear appear quite
marginal in terms of any concern for strong storms.
Behind the cold front, temperatures will be significantly cooler on
Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s -- around 5 degrees
below normal. These cooler temperatures will remain in place through
Thursday, but some moderation back to values near normal can be
expected by the end of the week. Any additional chances for
precipitation near the end of the week appear very uncertain, though
there may be another wave that tracks through the region at some
point Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will offer light winds and clear skies this morning.
This will lead to the development of river valley fog. Have MVFR to
IFR vsby restrictions at KLUK with a brief MVFR restriction at KILN.
The fog will improve quickly after sunrise with diurnally driven
cumulus clouds developing this afternoon. Skies will become clear
this evening with the potential for river valley fog again tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 2:25 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510040625-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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