PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 12:53 PM EDT
668
FXUS61 KPBZ 031653
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1253 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains dominant through Monday, leading to
continued dry weather and warm temperatures. The next chance of
a wetting rainfall arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues, with above-normal afternoon highs and
near-normal overnight lows
-------------------------------------------------------------
The pattern is being dominated by expansive upper ridging across
the Mississippi Valley into the eastern CONUS. Surface high
pressure edging off of the New Jersey coast is inducing
southerly low- level flow, leading to an increase in temperature
and dewpoints while maintaining a mostly sunny sky. Afternoon
highs will reach into the upper 70s to near 80F in some
locations.
Tonight, the dry and quiet pattern continues. Mostly clear
skies and increased surface moisture will allow better
conditions for near-dawn river valley fog. Overnight lows will
end up seasonably cool.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry weather under high pressure
- High temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal while
nighttime temperatures will be just above normal
----------------------------------------------------------------
The overall pattern remains high confidence through the weekend.
The upper ridge will slowly shift eastward across the Ohio
Valley and the Appalachians, maintaining mostly clear skies.
Daytime high temperatures will warm to values 10 to 15 degrees
above climatology. Overnight lows should not be as anomalous as
a dry air mass and the lack of cloud cover leads to good
radiational cooling, yet values may still edge to just above
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in dry and warm conditions Monday
- Good chance of a wetting rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday
- Cooler temperatures from Tuesday on, although it is uncertain
exactly how much cooler values will be
----------------------------------------------------------------
Clustered ensemble guidance continues to show a high-confidence
pattern for Monday, with the main ridge axis along the Eastern
Seaboard during the morning. This will maintain the dry and warm
pattern for one more day.
Thereafter, guidance generally agrees that a troughing pattern takes
hold for the midweek period, with the mid-level system traversing
the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night and reaching the northeast
CONUS by Wednesday. Differences remain among the various clusters
regarding depth and timing, which lends particularly
uncertainty to the temperature forecast. NBM 10th to 90th
percentile max temperature spreads are near or over 10 degrees
from Tuesday on, with values from a bit below to a bit above
normal all plausible. The current forecast will continue to
mirror the ensemble means, which are near normal this time of
year.
Despite the model differences, this trough still represents the next
decent chance of a widespread rainfall. NBM 48-hour probabilities of
half-inch or more of rain ending at 8 AM Thursday are in the 45 to
55 percent range for the Upper Ohio Valley. This will not be a
drought-ending event by any means, but a welcome wetting rainfall
does seem like a likely outcome. The most likely precipitation
timing appears to be in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday
morning window. Thereafter, encroaching high pressure may
provide a dry end to the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains
centered to our east. Latest ACARS soundings show a very dry
boundary layer with scarcely enough moisture to support much, if
any, diurnal cu development this afternoon. Movement of the
surface high toward the southeast will reorient the pressure
gradient leading to light south/southwest wind through sunset.
Enough of a gradient tonight will keep wind slightly elevated
but still less than 5 knots. Despite a modest increase in
surface moisture, fog development Saturday morning is likely to
be confined to the valleys with low probability impacts to any
terminal.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR conditions are expected on the whole through Mon as high
pressure centered in the nern CONUS remains assertive. The
exception will be during late night/early morning Sun and Mon
when river-valley fog could ensue coincident with increasing
boundary-layer moisture and diurnal slackening of the wind.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MLB
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 12:53 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510031653-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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