JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:45 AM EDT
938
FXUS63 KJKL 290545 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through most of the next week.
- Moisture moving onshore from the Atlantic on the north side of
Tropical System Imelda could bring a few showers into southeast
Kentucky on Tuesday.
- Confidence remains high that the impacts from the tropical
system will be minimal across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
UPDATE Issued at 1216 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
The forecast remains on track. Did slightly increase cloud cover
in the Sky grids in the far south as a few mid-level clouds move
west into the area while dissipating.
UPDATE Issued at 743 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
The forecast is on track, with no notable changes with the early
evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
An upper level high centered near Illinois will be our primary
influence through the short term period, keeping us dry. At the
surface, high pressure will be positioned to our north while a
pair of tropical systems begin a brief fujiwhara dance off the
southeast coast. The low level flow between the high and the lows
will provide us with trajectories generally the northeast to east,
which will not permit any significant low level moisture
advection. However, the deeper layer flow aloft will begin to
bring Atlantic moisture westward on the north side of the tropical
systems. This may allow for an increase in clouds late Monday and
Monday night, especially over the eastern part of the forecast
area.
Decent radiating conditions (the best being tonight) will continue
to allow for cool night time/early morning temperatures, along
with some valley fog. Abundant sunshine will give a strong
warm-up for the day Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
The main theme for much of the extended is strengthening upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians keeping
conditions dry and temperatures pleasant. Main effects from the
tropical system across the Bahamas into the Atlantic ocean will
remain east of the spine of the Appalachians with the exception of a
few showers Tuesday.
For Tuesday, a shear axis and associated deformation zone will move
into the central and southern Appalachians. Enough moisture and
instability is available to produce isolated to widely scattered
showers mainly for areas near the KY/VA state-line. Instability is
limited with ensemble mean CAPES less than 500. Can not rule out
thunder but confidence is low.
For Wednesday through next weekend, good agreement between ensemble
analysis and latest deterministic models in depicting upper and
surface ridging into the Ohio valley and Appalachians. End result
will be pleasant and dry conditions. As mentioned by previous
forecaster, the pattern will support a ridge/valley temperature
split with some mid to upper 40s particularly for valleys and 50s
for areas of more open terrain and ridges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
Valley fog is developing again this night, bringing localized VLIFR
conditions, before dissipating a couple of hours after sunrise.
This will mainly impact southeast Kentucky, and may briefly affect
KLOZ and KSME between 11 and 12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
hold through the period, with winds less than 10 kts - generally
out of the northeast.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 1:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509290545-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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