ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 6:35 AM EDT
101
FXUS61 KILN 261035
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
635 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of surface high pressure will extend from central IN into
west central OH this morning. The ridge will linger over the
northern 2/3 of Ohio through early Sunday and then shift southward.
Dry weather is expected through at least mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clear sky cover and light wind has brought dense fog to most of the
region and an advisory is in effect until 10:00 across the CWA. What
few sites are not reporting fog are expected to fall in line in
relatively short order.
Morning lows will range from the mid 50s over IN and west central OH to
the upper 50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather will be in place for the short term with just some cu
expected on Friday after morning fog dissipates. Highs should fall
between 75-80 degrees with overnight lows in the mid 50s. More fog is
expected for early Saturday morning as light winds and clear skies
create another favorable radiational cooling environment. This is
going to be more likely in valleys and fog-prone areas and not
necessarily area-wide.
Saturday should be just as pleasant with highs near 80 and partly
cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Into the second half of the weekend, a deep ridge builds across the
Midwest and Great Lakes, with the upper level low lingering over the
Appalachians and Southeast US. Confidence is increasing that the
upper level low and tropical remnants will impact the weather early
next week. This would lead to Sunday likely being the warmest day of
the period due to clouds and some chances for rainfall entering the
picture in the following days. Expect temperatures to be in the mid
to upper 80s Sunday afternoon.
Some of the challenges related to the evolution of Tropical Storm
Humberto and Invest 94L (future Imelda if named) have become more
clear over the last couple of forecast periods. While 94L remains
disorganized, guidance suggests the system will eventually organize
in the Bahamas, moving quickly northwest into the Carolina
coastline. The strength of the system will play a major role in
local weather conditions early next week as a stronger landfalling
system would contribute to more moisture and potentially stronger
winds reaching the Ohio Valley. The upper level low will be the
primary steering mechanism for the system, directing the remnants
northwest. How long the remnants linger south of the region will
again depend on the eventual strength of the system and its
interaction with the upper level low. Impacts to the local area are
expected to be relatively minor with increased easterly winds and
higher rainfall chances across the south. These details will become
more clear in the coming days.
Otherwise, the region remains strong across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley, pushing drier air in from the north. There will eventually
be some competition between the dry air from the north and the
tropical moisture attempting to move north. Late in the period, a
strong trough will interact with TC Humberto in the western
Atlantic, providing an opportunity for a stronger push of drier air
Wednesday into Thursday. With the ridge in place to the north,
temperatures remain above normal through the entire period.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR fog will lift and scatter out this morning at KLUK. MVFR to IFR
vsbys elsewhere will also scatter out to be VFR at 12Z or at least
rise into MVFR for that first hour. The lower stratus that was a
concern earlier looks to be hung up over the lower Scioto Valley and
should not be a valid threat this morning at the terminals.
Winds under 5kt will be nnw and turn ne, but changing a direction
while 3-4kt did not seem prudent to have an added line in the
forecast to indicate this.
Some sunrise surprise fog is expected again tomorrow with the
exception of central OH. KILN could see LIFR vsbys once again
towards 10Z or so, while KLUK should begin to fog around 04Z and tank
to LIFR after about 07Z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Franks
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 6:35 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509261035-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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