LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 3:08 PM EDT
853
FXUS63 KLMK 291908
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Continued dry and warm weather expected through the week.
* With several days of dry weather, drought conditions are expected
to persist or worsen. Along with elevated fire weather threat.
* Trend continues to show no impacts from the tropical duo of
Humberto and Imelda.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows just a scattering of
mid-level Cu over the region as the upper-level cloud shield
associated with Imelda stretches from the southeastern US into WV &
PA. Highs were already in the mid/upper 80s with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s to around 60 thanks to mixing this afternoon. We can
expect more of the same through the short term.
The combination of strong sfc high pressure over Ontario and upper
level ridging over the Ohio Valley will continue the dry and warmer
than normal weather into tomorrow. Skies will clear and winds will
turn light with the loss of daytime heating overnight. Lows will be
in the upper 50s to near 60. Mostly sunny and warm again tomorrow,
with highs in the mid/upper 80s with the development of some mid-
level Cu. As been the trend, went ahead and bumped high temperatures
up a few degrees from NBM as observed highs the last few days have
been running warmer compared to guidance. Also lowered dewpoint
values as well as NBM guidance has been too high on values in the
afternoon not adequately accounting for afternoon mixing with NE
winds between 5-15 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The forecast remains dry with warmer than normal temperatures
through the forecast period. Ridging aloft will persist over the
Ohio Valley through the week and into the weekend as sfc high
pressure passes to the north through Ontario Canada then into the
northeastern US by the end of the week. Daytime highs will continue
to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late Sept. into early Oct.
with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper
50s to near 60 at times.
Despite the wet weather from last week, our prolonged period of dry
and unseasonably warm weather this week and weekend will likely keep
drought conditions persistent if not worsen in some cases. The next
chance of any measurable precipitation doesn't appear to arrive
until just outside the 7 day by Tuesday or Wednesday. Both the EURO
and GFS seem to want to hint at increasing chances of rain by
Tuesday from a system coming out of the Gulf but do differ greatly
on just how strong the system will be and precipitation amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Sfc high pressure along with ridging aloft will continue VFR
conditions through the forecast period. Few mid-level Cu is already
starting to develop this afternoon and winds are out of the NE and
could get to around 10 Kts this afternoon. Overnight clear skies
light winds again are likely with just isolated possibility of fog
in a few spots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 29, 3:08 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509291908-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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