PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:05 PM CDT
700
FXUS63 KPAH 261805
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are forecast through this weekend into early
next week.
- Temperatures will remain about 4 to 8 degrees above normal
through Monday, then cool slightly for the middle part of next
week.
- Moisture from a potential tropical disturbance off the
Carolina coast could bring a slight chance of showers by the
middle of next week, but for now the forecast remains dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Quiet and warm weather is forecast as we end September and open
October. Patchy shallow fog development is expected again
in the predawn hours Saturday, especially in low-lying areas.
Some of this could be locally dense across the MO Bootheel
northward along the Mississippi River. H5 troughing and weak
surface high pressure over the region today will gradually
translate towards the eastern seaboard during this weekend. As
H5 ridging increases from the central/southern Great Plains,
temperatures will warm to about 4-8 degrees above normal this
weekend into early next week.
The forecast for the middle to latter half of the next work is
more uncertain. The reason for this is that the lingering
troughing over the East Coast may draw westward tropical
moisture from a disturbance off the Carolina coast into the
region by mid-week. This may lead to an increase in cloud cover
and humidity levels, and perhaps a small chance of showers,
particularly in western Kentucky. However, confidence overall in
how this evolves is low given the uncertainty surrounding the
forecast intensity and path of the potential tropical
disturbance.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
FEW-SCT diurnal fair weather CU with bases around 5kft will
develop through the afternoon and diminish this evening. With
forecasted lows well below forecast crossover values, during the
predawn/sunrise window (09-13z) shallow fog development is
likely at CGI, PAH, and MVN, with MVFR to IFR restrictions
possible. The fog will quickly dissipate by 12-14z, with clear
skies expected the rest of the forecast period. Winds through
this afternoon will be light from the N-NNE around 3-5 kts,
becoming calm tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:05 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509261805-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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