CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:20 PM EDT
014
FXUS61 KCLE 261720
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes region will
depart eastward today. Upper level ridging from the Midwest
will build eastward into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
region this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our weather is looking nice and brighter today through this
weekend. The only impactful weather that we have left to deal
with is some areas of fog this morning. Due to the wet ground
from recent rainfall and clearing skies overnight, that has
allowed the development of some fog this morning. So far the
coverage of fog has been patchy to areas with a few localized
pockets of denser fog, especially down near Central Ohio and
parts of far Northeast Ohio this morning. We are monitoring
trends for our southern CWA counties, south of the Highway 30
corridor for a possible fog advisory this morning.
The fog will quickly lift out by mid morning with plenty of
sunshine for our Friday. The upper level trough and storm system
that brought the recent wet weather is slowly exiting eastward
away from our area this morning. We have upper level ridging
from the Midwest building into the Ohio Valley today. There is
also a weak surface high pressure that is building from west to
east into the Ohio Valley today. Mostly sunny skies and warm
weather is on tap for later today with high temps back in the
middle to upper 70s. Tonight will bring clear skies and light
winds along with the potential of some fog to develop again
late overnight through sunrise Saturday morning. Low temps
tonight will range from the lower to middle 50s. On Saturday, a
weak upper level trough near the Mid-Atlantic region may throw
back some high and mid level clouds over northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania during the day. Generally it will be
mostly sunny to partly cloudy across our area on Saturday and
another warm, nice weather day. High temperatures will continue
to be above average topping out in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
More nice and quiet weather is on the way for the rest of the
weekend into early next week. Our weather pattern will be
dominated by an upper level ridge of high pressure that will be
located over the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes region.
Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy Sunday and Monday
with temperatures above average. High temps will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s both Sunday and Monday. Overnight low temps
will be in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall, the weather pattern still looks fairly quiet for the
middle of next week. But, there is something that may indirectly
bring some cooler and breezy weather by mid week. The upper
level ridge will continue to dominate our weather Tuesday with
above average temperatures. The forecast models and guidance
shows a potential tropical system that may move into Carolinas
or Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week. At the same
time, a cold front will drop southward through the Great Lakes
middle of next week. Behind the cold front, a large surface high
pressure system will try to build southward over the Great
Lakes. There could be a decent pressure gradient between the
high pressure to our north and the potential tropical system
south of our region mid week which may bring some breezy
weather for a day or two. Otherwise, the forecast will remain
dry with no POPs through the middle of next week. Temperatures
will cool down back to more seasonable levels towards the middle
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with deterioration to
IFR vsbys from fog possible overnight into Saturday morning. A
similar scenario will unfold across the area tonight with the
potential for reduced vsbys from fog, though it appears the
coverage of fog will be more patchy than previous nights. If
dense fog does develop, it will be most likely found at YNG
where future TAF updates may necessitate prevailing fg
inclusion.
With the exception of a north to northwest lake breeze of 5 to 8
knots at CLE/ERI, winds are generally favoring a west to
southwest direction of 5 knots or less. Winds will become light
and variable overnight, perhaps favoring a slight south to
southeast direction.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in fog across the eastern half of the
area Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected
through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Overall, marine conditions will remain relatively calm through
he weekend with the region remaining between a cold front to the
north of Lake Erie and low pressure moving east across the Deep
South. Winds will generally be westerly at 5 to 12 knots today
before becoming more south/southwesterly late tonight through
Saturday. High pressure will maintain influence late this
weekend with generally light and variable flow anticipated
through the daytime Monday. Daily lake breezes will likely
result in onshore flow Saturday through Sunday and possibly
Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure attempts to build south into the region
and a tropical system moves somewhere in the vicinity of the
Southeast coastline, resulting in increasing northeast winds.
Still a bit too early to determine how strong winds will be over
the lake during this timeframe, but Small Craft Advisories are
possible as early as Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...15
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:20 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509261720-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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