PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 11:54 PM CDT
142
FXUS63 KPAH 240454
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Intervals of showers and storms will continue through
Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible
each afternoon and evening with gusty winds being the main
threat.
- Heavy rainfall through Wednesday may lead to localized flash
flooding issues.
- Slightly below normal temperatures through the remainder of
the week turn more seasonable by the weekend with dry weather
conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A 500 mb vort max over Colorado associated with a broad trough will
bring more periods of active weather across the FA through
Wednesday. The next area of rain and embedded storms is now over
SEMO and will continue to push east into western Kentucky through
this evening when the 12z CAMs show convection peaking. SPC
maintains a marginal risk of severe weather with isolated damaging
winds being the main concern. However, cloud debris associated with
morning convection has help to limit destabilization to some extent
with only 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE now progged by the RAP13
downstream. Give 25 to 30 kts of sfc-3km shear and low level lapse
rates between 6.0 to 7.0 C/km, a brief strong to severe storm
through this evening still cannot be ruled out.
The 12z CAMs remain split on the intensity of a second round of
storms tonight, with the HRRR and 3km NAM being more robust as a
weak sfc low deepens along I-64 helping to advect in even more
moisture. Unlike the first round, these storms should be more
elevated posing mainly a heavy rain concern. Regardless, heavy
rainfall rates due to PWATs between 1.5 to 2.0 inches will be
capable of causing localized flash flooding with typical runoff
issues in low-lying locations. As a amplified longwave trough
approaches from the west Wednesday and provides robust PVA, one
final round of showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, posing another marginal risk
of severe storms over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
As the aformentioned trough pushes east on Thursday, lingering
showers will remain possible before dry weather conditions settle
over the region for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal through the remainder of the week before
turning seasonable by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Regional radar is beginning to show development of scattered
showers which may bring ceiling/visibility restrictions this
morning. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible which could bring
additional IFR/LIFR restrictions to the terminals. Best chances
for LIFR is at CGI, with IFR potential elsewhere. Additional
shower activity is expected on Wednesday mainly in the afternoon
hours into Wednesday night with ceiling and visibility
restrictions expected from any showers.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 11:54 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509240454-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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