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Emergency Information => Weather Info => Topic started by: ThreatWebInternal on September 25, 2025, 05:40:08 AM

Title: [Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 6:00z for portions of IWX
Post by: ThreatWebInternal on September 25, 2025, 05:40:08 AM
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 6:00z for portions of IWX

871 
WUUS01 KWNS 220602
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025

VALID TIME 221200Z - 231200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   36030011 37110162 38150165 38600072 38599967 37299700
       37149560 36849498 36349487 35979533 35629612 35359673
       35299834 35489916 36030011
0.02   41269765 42229700 42629613 42619518 41819463 40989521
       40349674 40809749 41269765
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   38960295 40720201 41230180 42240314 43320277 43500186
       42620033 42349916 43499538 44089357 44539076 44788862
       44498736 44108694 43148728 42598860 41849174 41179301
       40009372 38939434 36649606 35879639 35179817 34999962
       35510079 36060166 37380241 38960295
0.15   38210151 38650071 38659960 38039841 37549777 37089770
       36699767 36309807 36129951 36250074 36400129 37280175
       38210151
0.15   40849361 39979473 39879562 40039651 40839752 41339771
       42199707 42399633 42409522 42019465 40849361
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   43957777 42457861 41607904 40647948 38878076 37518197
       35908348 34928497 34568651 34818771 35708815 36008823
       36678824 38108771 39518568 41798363 43808154
0.05   40540209 41240180 42260312 43310275 43480186 42620034
       42319912 43069652 44079359 44509098 44798861 44508739
       44118693 43138730 42598861 42099071 41859171 41169301
       40049364 37559371 34639398 33529467 33159488 32799596
       32159829 32449996 33480098 35120212 36940316 38060338
       39000317 40270228 40540209
0.15   38220152 38660070 38669964 38119855 37649767 37189665
       36679608 35889636 35319725 34969774 34909849 34979962
       35210014 35670095 37330175 38220152
0.15   40059651 40809753 41329773 42199708 42379634 42419523
       42019463 40869363 39969472 39889561 39979611 40059651
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   38220152 38660070 38669964 37189665 36679608 35889636
       34969774 34909849 34979962 35670095 37280175 38220152
SLGT   42199708 42399633 42419523 42019463 40849361 39969472
       39879562 40039651 40809753 41329773 42199708
MRGL   43957777 42457861 40647948 38878076 35908348 34928497
       34568651 34818771 35708815 36008823 36678824 38108771
       39518568 41798363 43738162
MRGL   39000317 40440216 41230180 42240314 43320277 43500186
       42620033 42349916 44089357 44509098 44798861 44498736
       44118693 43138730 42598860 41849172 41169301 40049364
       37559371 34639398 33159488 32159829 32449996 33480098
       35120212 36940316 38060338 39000317
TSTM   29218529 30538488 31408418 31938303 33077992 33827719
       99999999 45667226 38617790 36118083 35418202 34808332
       33898439 32488577 31188629 29698649 99999999 25619838
       30799958 31940061 32830251 32890307 32850351 32760411
       32600489 32230544 31980571 30910605 99999999 31971760
       33171639 35671287 36391151 36521063 36701043 37001020
       37161010 37381016 37651039 37761072 37941158 38241239
       39251329 40171383 41021418 42101369 42741283 43361248
       44001238 44521203 45271008 45300866 45130749 44850657
       44730577 45100389 45610265 45760232 45610170 44940091
       43869970 43689859 44029679 45029426 45919277 48658897

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
GCK 50 N GCK 45 WSW RSL 40 NE PNC 10 SSW BVO 30 ENE CQB 15 SE CHK 20
NNW FSI 30 NW LTS 25 E BGD 20 NNE EHA 50 WNW GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
OFK SUX 15 S SLB 40 E DNS 25 NE LWD 15 NE STJ 15 S FNB 20 SE BIE 40
W LNK 20 WSW OLU 25 NE OFK.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
ROC 35 S BUF 25 N LBE 50 SE PKB 30 E TYS 15 ESE CHA 15 ESE HSV MSL
45 E MKL 50 NE MKL 40 SE PAH 10 WNW EVV 35 ESE IND 15 NNE TOL 70 E
BAX.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
LIC 30 W IML 50 N IML 20 NW AIA 40 NNE CDR 40 SSW PHP 20 W ANW 25
WSW ONL 20 ESE MKT 35 SE EAU 30 NW GRB 30 NNE MTW 35 WSW MBL 35 ENE
MKE 20 E JVL CID 10 SSE OXV 15 NNW CDJ 30 NW SGF 45 SE RKR 45 SE PRX
10 SW SEP 15 W ABI 50 ESE LBB 25 WSW AMA 35 N CAO 10 E LHX 35 SE
LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW AAF 30 SE MAI
10 S ABY 45 WSW VDI 15 NNE CHS 50 SE ILM ...CONT... 55 N EFK 45 NE
CHO 40 NE HKY 30 E AVL 40 WNW AND 20 N ATL 20 WSW AUO 30 NNE CEW 60
SW PFN ...CONT... 40 SSW MFE 20 NNE JCT 40 N SJT 40 ENE HOB 15 NNE
HOB 20 NW HOB 30 NNE CNM 40 WNW CNM 45 NW GDP 40 ENE ELP 65 SSE ELP
...CONT... 55 SSW SAN 35 SSW TRM 45 WSW GCN 35 S PGA 55 ESE PGA 60
ESE PGA 45 SE U17 40 SE U17 30 ESE U17 20 ENE U17 15 N U17 35 ENE
BCE 35 ESE MLF 40 WSW U24 40 SSE ENV 20 NNW ENV 30 S BYI 15 SW PIH
25 WSW IDA 35 NNW IDA 15 ESE MQM 35 SSE LVM 35 S BIL 35 NW SHR 20
ENE SHR 30 NNW GCC 35 SSW 2WX 30 SW Y22 15 SSW Y22 30 SE Y22 45 SSW
MBG 20 WNW 9V9 30 WSW MHE 20 S BKX 40 SSW STC 65 ENE STC 90 NE GNA.

Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 6:00z for portions of IWX (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250922_1200.html)

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