NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 19, 11:00 AM AST
368
WTNT42 KNHC 191455
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025
Gabrielle's low-level center remains mostly exposed, now between a
large area of deep convection in the eastern semicircle and growing
cells in the southwestern quadrant. There has been little change in
the satellite estimates and since scatterometer missed the
radius-of-maximum winds this morning, the initial intensity will
remain 45 kt.
The storm is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 10 kt, with the
subtropical ridge located to its north. A general pattern of
troughing is expected to persist near the southeastern U.S. coast
and far western Atlantic for the next several days, which is
expected cause Gabrielle to recurve around the western periphery of
the ridge over the next 4 days. While the track guidance remains
relatively tight during this period, the along-track spread (speed
differences) are quite large in the medium range. The HCCA and
Google DeepMind (GDM) ensemble mean have bifurcated on the latest
cycle with the corrected consensus to the north and the GDM to the
south. Our forecast has adjusted slightly north, but remains on the
southern side of the overall consensus. The reliable track models
continue to show Gabrielle's center passing at least 140 n mi east
of Bermuda in about 3 days. However, interests on the island should
continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track
error at 3 days is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away
from the center. There remains a 20-25 percent chance of
tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda.
The moderate westerly shear currently affecting Gabrielle is
forecast to gradually lessen below 10 kt by 24-36 hours. This should
begin to mitigate the effects of surrounding dry air and allow for
gradual strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has once again
been raised to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids,
and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. By day 5,
the onset of significantly stronger shear and cooler waters should
induce some weakening. There is significant uncertainty about when
Gabrielle might become extratropical, as the forward speed of the
system may contribute significantly to a higher peak intensity
(longer time over warmer waters).
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda
should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to
specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.
2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda
tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 21.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.9N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 24.3N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 26.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.8N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 37.5N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 41.3N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake
Source: NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 19, 11:00 AM AST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509191500-KNHC-WTNT42-TCDAT2)
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