The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 19, 0:38z for portions of PAH
785
WUUS01 KWNS 190039
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VALID TIME 190100Z - 191200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 35200012 35760012 36539430 37199369 37839344 39989293
40399188 39919114 38679094 36679123 35109216 34499390
33979557 34229700 34499881 34710004 35200012
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 34379815 34710009 35740012 36019847 36139741 36529439
37169369 37829347 38889314 39989288 40389189 39919113
38699094 36609123 35599185 35089219 34809298 34429418
34009557 34229688 34379815
0.05 32071449 32871346 33191288 33771244 33281148 32651130
32211221 31561271
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
MRGL 34710009 35720015 36449538 36469438 37169371 38639322
39999292 40389190 39939115 38619093 36649123 35039220
33989563 34710009
MRGL 32041449 32581379 32941339 33221284 33751243 33281150
32651128 32201222 31591268
TSTM 48780694 47320481 46240429 45220326 44090074 42350031
42010232 43800646 46740951 48410932 48780694 99999999
50059685 48519342 47198948 45978850 43448979 42148969
38308915 33819162 32219309 29929438 28719673 29389730
30759617 32429602 32799843 33160018 33570258 33620444
32210426 30420518 99999999 26739979 26469809 26499635
99999999 34038772 32938511 33498320 32168107 31048156
30868437 31408763 32548828 34038772 99999999 35538356
35258270 34468308 34398385 34558427 34768436 35088391
35538356 99999999 28458329 27448174 26558111 26418059
26728026 27697977 99999999 39279774 39839654 39229572
38359600 38429715 39279774 99999999 31981638 33621710
34401822 35631969 37201965 37521780 38561593 38451440
35861133 34200837 35130604 35160382 35960263 36280157
36449951 36899599 37459485 39659393 41639591 43839635
45949889 48699986 50019881 99999999 38692257 39182319
40642421 42002407 42182325 41532186 40422242 39222227
38692257
&&
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
CDS 60 WNW CSM 30 ENE TUL 20 ESE GMJ 20 WSW SGF 20 ESE SZL 20 WSW
IRK 40 ENE IRK UIN 30 WSW STL 35 ESE UNO 20 N LIT 25 NNW PRX 20 NNE
CDS.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
YUM 45 E YUM 40 W GBN 20 NNW GBN 30 NW PHX 30 ESE PHX 40 NNW TUS 60
SSE GBN 95 S GBN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW GGW 15 N GDV
10 SSW BHK 30 SSE 2WX 30 SW PIR 25 SW ANW 25 E AIA 60 SW GCC 20 S
LWT 25 ESE HVR 40 NNW GGW ...CONT... 90 N HCO INL 45 W CMX 20 WNW
IMT 25 NE LNR 30 W RFD 15 W MVN 15 NNE LLQ 30 N IER 20 W BPT 15 SE
VCT 45 NNW VCT 15 NE CLL 35 NE CRS 20 W MWL 60 NNW ABI 45 W LBB 25
NNE ROW 10 S CNM 70 W MRF ...CONT... 60 SSW LRD 20 NNE MFE 75 ENE
BRO ...CONT... 50 ENE CBM LGC 35 SSE AHN 10 ENE SAV 10 SW SSI 30 N
TLH 35 W GZH 30 ENE MEI 50 ENE CBM ...CONT... 30 SE TYS 15 SW AVL 20
W AND 40 NW AHN 55 ENE RMG 50 ESE CHA 50 S TYS 30 SE TYS ...CONT...
50 NW PIE 30 WSW AGR 45 E FMY 35 WSW PBI 10 WNW PBI 40 E VRB
...CONT... 20 SSW CNK 35 SSE BIE 10 NNW TOP 10 E EMP 35 SE SLN 20
SSW CNK ...CONT... 45 S CZZ 30 SE RAL 20 SSW PMD 40 WNW BFL 30 N FAT
35 ENE BIH 65 S P68 55 N P38 45 E GCN 70 SSW GNT 30 E ABQ 10 W TCC
DHT 30 S GUY 50 WSW AVK 10 N BVO 30 NW JLN 20 WSW CDJ 15 SE TQE 25
NE FSD 40 NNW ABR 60 NW DVL 120 NW HCO ...CONT... 45 SE UKI UKI 10
SSW EKA 10 ESE 4BK 25 WSW MFR 30 ENE MHS 20 NNW RBL 50 E UKI 45 SE
UKI.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 19, 0:38z for portions of PAH (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250919_0100.html)
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