PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 1:21 PM CDT
001
FXUS63 KPAH 181821
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
121 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures near 90 continue through the
weekend, followed by a return to more seasonable in the low to
mid 80s early next week.
- Daily low rain chances begin on Friday and will continue
through the weekend with isolated showers and storms.
- More impactful rain chances arrive next week and may begin to
provide some drought relief.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Embedded impulses associated with a 500 mb trough over the northern
Plains will dig towards the FA on Friday, triggering a low risk
of isolated showers and storms mainly across portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Bumped up NBM PoPs in
the afternoon to account for the slightly wetter 12z CAMs that
also indicate uncertainty on placement. The RAP13 shows modest
instability and poor shear, but steep low-level lapse rates may
support a stray gusty storm.
Daily chances continue through the weekend, especially on Sunday as
a shortwave moves through. Energy over the northwest CONUS will
set the stage for a fairly unsettled week as a cut off 500 mb
low develops over the central CONUS by Wednesday. There remains
a large spread among model guidance regarding the evolution of
the synoptic details, but the general consensus is for shower
and storm chances to become more probable through the middle of
the week. The GFS remains more progressive and drier compared to
the ECMWF that holds the aformentioned low back in the vicinity
of the FA. Should the slower scenario be correct, more
impactful rainfall upwards of 1 to 2+ inches would be possible.
Regardless, increased rain chances along with cloud cover and
more seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 80s is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Clear skies prevail across the region this afternoon, with high
level clouds building in from the west tonight. Clouds thicken
Friday morning as a disturbance begins to approach. Low rain
chances hold off until the end of the TAF period. Light &
variable winds through tonight increase to 4-6 kts by midday
Friday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 1:21 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509181821-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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