PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 11:53 PM CDT
756
FXUS63 KPAH 160453
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures through Wednesday will be 7 to 10+ degrees
above normal in the middle to upper 90s.
- Lower humidity levels will keep heat indices close to the
actual temperatures versus having extreme heat index values.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive late this week and
into the weekend. Rainfall totals are expected to be less
than an inch for most areas.
- Drought conditions will linger and worsen through the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Upper-level ridging will linger across the Quad State area through
at least Wednesday as a trough digs across the northern and central
Plains. This will keep temperatures well above normal. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s through
Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. That will be pushing close to
10 degrees above normal. "Normal" highs across the area are in the
low to mid 80s for this time of year. PWATs/moisture is near normal
with dewpoints in the 60s, so heat index values are expected to be
fairly close to the actual temperature.
A few showers and storms are possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon
into this evening, mainly across SEMO. Otherwise, the next best
chance for showers and storms will arrive Friday into Saturday as
the aforementioned trough begins to dig farther southeast into the
Quad State area and the ridging pattern begins to break down. At the
same time, a couple frontal boundaries are expected to approach the
Quad State area, bringing a better chance of showers and storms.
Shear and instability both fairly low at this time, but it is worth
keeping an eye on over the next few days. Behind/near the frontal
boundaries and with the trough overhead Friday into Saturday,
temperatures are expected to pull back to near normal or right
around the mid 80s. Precipitation totals aren't overly impressive
(less than 0.5 inches for most locations), so this is not expected
to be a drought buster.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Patchy ground fog will be the primary potential flight
impediment through daybreak, although prevailing VFR conditions
are most likely at all sites. Light winds and VFR conditions are
then forecast for Tuesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT Tuesday night for INZ081-
085>088.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ082.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 11:53 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509160453-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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