MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 12:18 AM CDT ...New Aviation...
739
FXUS64 KMOB 080518
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
An upper trof over the eastern CONUS weakens through Monday then
is rejuvenated through midweek by a system which advances from the
Plains. A large surface high builds across the eastern states
through Monday, with a surface ridge persisting over the southeast
states Tuesday before weakening on Wednesday. A surface low
currently located over the eastern Gulf is anticipated to drift
slowly into the central or north central Gulf through Wednesday
and breaks down to an inverted trof in the process before later
dissipating. This feature along with a series of shortwaves looks
sufficient to support slight chance to chance pops mainly over
the western Florida panhandle on Monday, then slight chance to
chance pops follow for Tuesday mostly over the coastal counties
and portions of southeast Mississippi. Small rain chances continue
near the coast on Wednesday along with a small portion of extreme
southeast Mississippi.
The upper trof amplifies through Friday while becoming oriented
mainly over the East Coast states then looks to begin to shift
into the far western Atlantic on Saturday. This pattern promotes a
dry deep layer northeasterly flow over the forecast area, and
have gone with a dry forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
Tonight looks to be coolest night of the period and will range
from the upper 50s/around 60 well inland to the mid/upper 60s at
the coast. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the mid
60s inland to around 70 at the coast then trend a bit cooler for
Thursday night and Friday night to range from the lower 60s inland
to upper 60s/near 70 at the coast. Highs on Monday through
Wednesday will be 85 to 90, then Thursday through Saturday will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A low risk of rip currents is
expected through Monday then trends to a high risk for Tuesday. A
moderate risk follows for Wednesday and then a low risk is
expected for Thursday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions under northerly flow of 5 to 10 knots expected
through the forecast.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northerly winds become moderate to strong tonight then diminish
and become northeasterly on Monday. The northeasterly flow
strengthens Monday night then becomes a light to moderate easterly
flow on Tuesday. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 10 pm
this evening until 10 am Monday for the open Gulf waters, and
during this time will also be in effect for the Mobile Bay area
from midnight until 7 am Monday. Have also issued a Small Craft
Advisory for the open Gulf waters from 3 am to 1 pm on Tuesday. A
light to moderate easterly flow follows for Wednesday into
Thursday. /29
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 12:18 AM CDT ...New Aviation... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509080518-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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