PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:33 PM EDT
730
FXUS61 KPBZ 081733
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
133 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high
pressure dominates. Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal
today will see a gradual warming trend over the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will be centered basically right over the forecast
area today. This will mean light and variable winds expected and
with the `12Z sounding indicating light winds up to the
700/500MB level. This will mean not wind mixing to the surface
today and a largely sunny day due to the dry column. A few wisps
of high cumulus will likely develop.
Heading into the overnight tonight, skies will clear out with
temperatures again falling into the low 40s but some lower 30s
are possible in the higher valleys of Eastern Tucker County.
Thus, a few instances of frost will be possible. As well, the
very northeast end of Forest County may see an instance of
frost. Otherwise, expected a clear and cool night with some
valley fog possible in some sheltered areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend
- Possible valley fog in the morning hours
--------------------------------------------------------------
Latest ensemble guidance shows good continuity with previous
runs, and there is still relatively high confidence of dry
conditions and a warming trend in temperatures with surface high
pressure in control. Forecast temperatures are slightly below
normal Tuesday then near normal by Wednesday.
With limited cloud coverage, radiational cooling during the
night will allow lows to consistently drop below normal through
the period, and have blended in 10th percentile temperatures to
account for this. Additionally, patchy river valley fog will be
possible each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming temperatures and dry conditions continue
- Temperature and precipitation uncertainty increases this weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
The dry pattern is likely to continue for the long term as
ensemble guidance continues to show good run to run continuity.
Ridging / sfc high pressure will maintain dry conditions into
the weekend before the potential for an upper shortwave dropping
out of Canada increases later in the weekend. By Sunday, the
ensemble spread in temperatures is generally between 10 and 15
degrees, and overall precipitation chances look relatively low
with clusters showing the greatest spread in heights northeast
of the forecast area. The NBM did give some slight chance pops
for Saturday night into Sunday but the chances are slim. In fact
the probs in DESI give a 25% chance of measurable precip. Its
likely that the dry conditions will persist.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR with light wind through the majority of
the TAF period under the influence of surface high pressure.
Strong radiational cooling may foster pockets of valley fog
during late night and early morning hours, but too much
uncertainty exists regarding whether fog will impact terminals
to warrant any specific mention in TAFs.
.OUTLOOK....
High confidence in high pressure supporting VFR and light wind
as the predominate weather type through much of the week.
Variances in these conditions will only be the result of
localized morning river valley fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:33 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509081733-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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