LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 10:46 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...
098
FXUS64 KLIX 290346
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Quick update to increase precipitation chances in the near term,
especially across the northwest corner of the CWA to deal with
cluster of convection moving into the area. Radar showing
signature for strong to severe winds entering Wilkinson County
Mississippi, and observation at Alexandria about an hour ago
supports severe storm potential. Will continue to monitor as storm
moves southeast along the boundary. Also an isolated heavy rain
threat. May need to make adjustments to the latter half of the
night, but that will be addressed with the package going out
between midnight and 1 AM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Current upper level analysis shows longwave trough over the eastern
third/half of the country and ridge centered south of West Texas. A
shortwave embedded within the trough will swing across the Great
Lakes today. This will dig the base of trough farther south which
slightly weakens the eastern edge of the ridge. Why this matters
locally is this puts the CWA right on the path of northwest flow
which opens the door per se, to convective development. Runs of
various CAMs suggest potential for convection along and north of a
line from St Francisville to Slidell. Best probs are in SW and
Coastal MS. Model soundings show a not so surprising environment
with ample instability (including DCAPE in the upper hundreds) and
fairly light shear/helicity. So main threats will be gusty winds.
Parameters don't appear concerning but likely need to keep an eye on
storms for severe potential through the late afternoon hours. Going
into the evening however, surface cooling induced inversion in the
low levels should limit gusty wind potential. However, coverage
looks to persist into the evening and overnight hours as a backdoor
frontal boundary associated with that trough to the east pushes into
central LA and southern MS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Global models consistently show the trough to the east broadening
back west which in-tern weakens ridging aloft even more. With
lingering frontal boundary, loss of subsidence, and PW's sitting
around 2.25"...widespread rain chances appear quite probable the
entire weekend. Rain chance forecast calls for 50 to 80% and may be
on the low side at times. Model sounding wind profile in the column
suggests potential for back building setup. It'll be crucial for
storms to be monitored for this, especially over urban areas as
precip processes should be quite efficient given expected PWs and
mid level instability that'll still be in place.
Uncertainty increased Tuesday onward as models diverge on how much
the trough to the east digs south. More digging will push drier
airmass into the CWA. If that doesn't happen, wetter pattern
continues.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
At the writing of this section, all terminals were VFR. However,
radar indicates there is a frontal boundary or outflow boundary
approaching the Interstate 10-12 corridors from the north. At
present, areal coverage of convection is rather isolated, but
several convection allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection
currently over southern Mississippi could track southeastward
along this boundary due to an upstream shortwave this evening.
Will carry mention of TSRA in several terminals to account for
this through about 04z, and will probably end up issuing several
amendments as trends become clearer. Could also see redevelopment
prior to sunrise at coastal terminals. On Friday, TSRA could
impact just about all terminals, with PROB30 mentioned by mid-
morning at most terminals and TEMPO during the afternoon hours.
MVFR conditions are likely during the daytime hours, with IFR
possible with the strongest cells.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
The main marine concern during at least the first half of the
forecast period will be the increasing threat for thunderstorms that
could produce locally higher winds and seas. The ones today will
more likely be in the evening to overnight hours. Gusty outflow
winds upwards of gale force are the main threat. This threat for
convection increases even more Friday into Saturday. Forecast
confidence is a bit lower by late in the weekend, with an
approaching cold front. The current wind forecast would indicate
generally offshore flow by late Sunday afternoon for most or all of
the waters as a backdoor cold front pushes in from the northeast. If
the front makes it well into the Gulf early next week, that may
justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines by Monday or Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 82 70 85 / 90 80 70 70
BTR 74 88 72 88 / 70 70 50 80
ASD 71 86 70 85 / 60 60 50 80
MSY 77 90 77 88 / 30 50 40 80
GPT 71 85 71 84 / 60 60 50 80
PQL 69 85 70 85 / 40 50 50 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 10:46 PM CDT ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508290346-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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