PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 12:14 AM CDT
778
FXUS63 KPAH 040514
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered-Numerous showers and storms will accompany two
frontal passages, the 1st through tomorrow morning, the 2nd
late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Total
rainfall amounts will average generally less than an inch.
- Each frontal passage will result in below normal temperatures
in its wake with highs in the 70s on Thursday, heating up
again in between with 80s Friday, before cooling off to the
70s again over the weekend into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025
A tongue of higher dew points just to our south will flux just
ahead of a model indicated weak ripple within the mean long
wave trof thru this evening, where the models hint at a few
showers or storms being possible. This is/has been seen on
satellite/radar with spotty activity detected within and nearby.
While it should largely stay more closely associated to the
tongue of moisture's interaction with the triggering ripple/wave
and therefore just to our south, it's possible some of this
sneaks into or pops in isolated fashion our far southern or far
southeastern counties briefly this afternoon/evening.
Pops spike overnight as the first cold front drops south and
into/thru the PAH FA. While at first glance there appears to be
little remaining CAPE in the 0-1KM layer, the models do suggest
a surface reflected low pressure center forms within the CWA and
rides coincident with the incoming boundary. It might provide
just enough lift to develop an isolated/elevated chance of
storms late tonight into early Thursday until fropa completes.
Low clouds come in on the cool side of the boundary and linger
til the wave/front pushes east. The slightly drier and cooler
air entrains as heights fall behind the front tmrw, eventually
ending pcpn chances. One thing to watch-- the models do hang the
boundary a little, at least on fropa progression, just as the
day is heating up, so it's possible a few rogue cells could get
going along our far southern or eastern border areas before the
aforementioned metamorphosis is completed. All in all, the pops
won't offer any tremendous relief to the D0/D1 conditions that
hover, with areal average qpf of a half inch or less rainfall
expected.
The primary long wave trof has one more cold fropa to offer by
week's end. After a temporary cool-off to the 70s Thursday,
we'll warm up nicely thru the 80s again Friday. This occurs just
ahead of the incoming next cold front, and as convective temps
are reached that afternoon, leads to more scattered
showers/storms that will continue said chances into the night as
the front completes passage. This pop spike in the high chance
to low likely range offers areal average qpf potential up to
about three quarters of an inch, while pop chances taper down
late in the night, perhaps lingering into early Saturday, until
the front and associated channeled streamwise vorticity
completes passage. Cooler/drier surface high pressure ushers in
pleasant 70s again for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Isolated to scattered shra/tsra expected from 06z-15z at
KMVN/KEVV/KOWB, with mainly just a few showers at KCGI/KPAH
from 08z-13z. Tsra may produce brief gusty winds to 35kts.
Conditions will be predominantly VFR across the TAF sites, but
brief drops to MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible with heavier shra or
tsra. Variable winds around 5kts or less will become northwest
to north around 5 kts overnight and persist through the day,
then they will become light and variable after 00z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 12:14 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509040514-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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