LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:29 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
296
FXUS64 KLIX 270429
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Persistent east coast trough will remain in place through the
period, with multiple disturbances moving around it. First
disturbance will cause the old frontal boundary to pull back
northward as a warm front by late Thursday. Moisture will lag a
little bit, which will keep rain chances relatively low, at 30
percent or lower, through Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
A stronger impulse moving around the overall east coast trough
will push another "cold" front toward the area by late Friday. By
this time, moisture will have increased across the area, with
precipitable water approaching or exceeding 2.2 inches by Friday
night.
There continue to be questions regarding exactly how far south
this front will move before it eventually stalls. The latest
operational GFS pushes the front into the northern Gulf before
washing it out, while the Euro pushes the front solidly into the
central Gulf.
Ordinarily, given the time of year, the GFS solution would seem
most reasonable, but this east coast trough is pretty hefty, so if
ever there was a pattern to push a front well into the Gulf in
late August/early September, this would be it. And in fact, taking
a look at the ensemble guidance, the GFS ensemble mean is a bit
farther south than the operational run, moving the front into the
northern Gulf. The Euro ensemble mean is slightly farther north
than the operational run but still south of the GFS ensemble mean.
That being said, it seems there is decent support for a full
passage into the Gulf, though it may not reach the central Gulf as
indicated by the operational Euro.
What does this mean for the local weather? Well assuming the front
moves into the Gulf, we'll see another dry period with dewpoints
dropping into the 60s. Afternoon highs will still be warm, but
overnight lows could actually drop below normal, reaching the mid
60s in some of the more northern locations. If, however, the
front does not make it all the way into the Gulf, expect a
somewhat rainy pattern to persist with daily showers and storms
focused along the decaying frontal boundary.
With all things considered, won't get too excited about it quite
yet through since the coolest/driest air would still be 5-6 days
out, but there's at least potential! And the best part about this
forecast? Regardless of the front, there is nothing noteworthy for
us in the tropics!
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds
and no significant ceilings. Isolated showers and storms are
forecast Wednesday afternoon, with HUM and BTR being the most
likely sites to be impacted. However, probability is too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Light to moderate easterly flow can be expected Wednesday as high
pressure remains centered to the north. By late Thursday, the high
will shift eastward and a warm front will retreat northward,
resulting in winds turning more southeasterly. This will also mark
an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase further Friday and
Saturday as another cold front drops toward the coast. Depending on
where the front eventually stalls, at least scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity could persist into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 20
BTR 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 20
ASD 69 90 68 91 / 0 10 0 10
MSY 77 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10
GPT 70 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 10
PQL 67 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:29 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508270429-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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