PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:32 PM EDT
045
FXUS61 KPBZ 251832
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold upper trough will remain anchored eastern Canada, the
Great Lakes, and Northeast states this week. A series of troughs
will rotate through the base of this trough and bring shower
chances to the Upper Ohio River Valley, especially north of
Pittsburgh.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A few lake effect showers north of Pittsburgh
----------------------------------------------------------------
Initial trough should be overhead this evening, followed by a
weak short wave ridge after midnight. Mainly diurnal showers
over the northern third should diminish after dark and will
later be confined mainly north of I-80.
Lake Erie has cooled slightly and is about 23C off Cleveland.
850 mb temps have dropped to about 8C but will cool to around 6C
by morning, easily exceeding the 13C Lake T delta threshold.
Despite weak subsidence later tonight would expect lake effect
showers to keep going especially northern Mercer to northern
Venango Counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Seasonably cool temperatures under upper troughing
- Rain showers possible Tuesday in NW flow
----------------------------------------------------------------
Next upstream trough currently over MN arrowhead should dig into
base of trough and cross forecast area tomorrow afternoon,
likely enhancing diurnal convection and lake effect. While 850
mb temps don't change much and remain around +6C in the NW, the
700 mb temperatures should cool to -4 to -5C while a -20C 500 mb
cold pocket passes by. This will permit somewhat deeper
convection tomorrow afternoon and graupel and thunder are
possible.
Significant height rises of 60-70 meters on Wednesday should
induce subsidence and drying and warming temps aloft will reduce
instability so dry weather is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Some moderation to temperatures as we round out the week
- Showers possible again Thursday mainly north of I-70
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Yet another trough digs across the Great Lakes with 10-20 meter
height falls and 850-700 mb warm advection regime ahead of it
results in decent chance of showers.
Another cold pocket will then drop temperatures again by Friday
and some lake effect showers area again possible in the
north.
Although details are uncertain, the ensemble guidance shows
persistent upper troughing over the northeast states continues
over the weekend into early next week. Since the main trough
axis will be east of our area, this is likely to be mainly dry
with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Drier air in northwesterly flow will maintain predominately VFR
conditions through the TAF period. One thing of note though is
the lake surface-850 mb temperature difference across Lake Erie
is enough to support lake enhanced clouds and potential isolated
to scattered showers this afternoon along and north of I-80.
Given the scattered, sporadic nature of any precipitation
showers, have opted for PROB30 groups this afternoon. No
mention of precipitation at all other ports to the south.
Northwest wind will be stout around 10 knots with gusts to 15-20
knots at times.
.OUTLOOK...
Cool air aloft could result in patchy MVFR cig restrictions north of
PIT from Tuesday-Thursday morning. Isolated to scattered lake
enhanced showers will be possible north of KPIT through
Thursday during the afternoons.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...88
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:32 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508251832-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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