PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 12:51 AM EDT
672
FXUS61 KPBZ 250451
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1251 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged cool and drier pattern sets in beginning Monday
with below normal temperatures through the entirety of the work
week. Some scattered lake effect showers are expected each
afternoon through Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A few lake effect showers north of Pittsburgh
- High temperature 5-8 degrees below normal
---------------------------------------------------------------
In the wake of Sunday night's cold front, today will be the start of
a several day stretch of below normal temperatures with a fall-like
airmass. Cool, dry advection in northwest flow between the departing
front and a building high will pull down low to mid 50s dew points
with high temperatures only likely to reach the low to mid 70s.
Cold air aloft will move overhead as an anomalously deep closed
upper low spins well off to our north, and with lake surface
temperatures on Erie of mid 70s, lake surface-850 mb temperature
difference will exceed 13C and support lake-enhanced cloud
coverage and showers today. Mean cloud bearing layer flow will
favor the west/northwest which should keep the highest coverage
of the showers north of Pittsburgh, though HREF measurable QPF
probs do bring some higher swaths as far south as Pittsburgh
metro. These will be light and have a very low to near zero
chance of lightning given equilibrium levels below -5C in hi res
soundings.
Low temperatures tonight likely dip into the low 50s across the
board, though some increase in cloud coverage with trapped moisture
beneath an inversion especially north and east of Pittsburgh may
stunt radiating just a bit. Cool air over warmer rivers points
toward river valley fog development as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Seasonably cool temperatures under upper troughing
- Rain showers possible Mon and Tue in NW flow, mainly north of
Pittsburgh.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Broad trough, with low centered over Hudson Bay, will be the
main influence on the weather pattern through most of the week.
Pulses dropping through the trough in west-northwesterly flow
will support the generation of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm given the differential between the temps at 850hpa
and the Great Lake water temps. A stronger shortwave will pivot
through the trough later on Tuesday but with limited moisture,
PoPs were kept in the chance category. This time, however, model
ensembles incorporate some upslope into the terrain so
precipitation chances include more of the region south and east
of Pittsburgh. Shortwave and surface ridging should keep
conditions dry on Wednesday.
Cold advection through the period will keep temperatures about
5-10 degrees below average. Low temperatures on Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning will likely dip below 50 degrees (>60%
chance for everywhere outside of the Pittsburgh urban center and
areas along the rivers).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Some moderation to temperatures as we round out the week
- Mostly dry conditions anticipated
-------------------------------------------------------------------
General story is that eastern CONUS trough will remain the
predominant feature through the remainder of the period.
However, there are some variances in the model guidance with its
strength and eventual shift toward the east into the weekend
that could influence how quickly temperatures moderate. In other
words, if the trough moves out faster, temperatures will warm
quicker, and if the trough lingers and deepens, temperatures
will stay below average with precip chances continuing. For now,
the consensus is for temperatures to remain slightly below
average with low chances for precipitation into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of a cold front passage, light northwest flow will
continue through the overnight hours. Drier air is working in in the
lower levels, so despite the ongoing cold advection, probs for
restrictions remain low through the daytime hours Monday.
As colder air filters in aloft, lake surface-850 mb temperature
difference across Lake Erie will be enough to support lake
enhanced clouds and scattered showers peaking in the afternoon.
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected with a BKN cloud deck
around 5-6kft, but can't rule out some brief MVFR within any
more moderate showers especially at FKL/DUJ. Given the
scattered, sporadic nature of the showers, have brought in a
PROB30 group for all but ZZV, MGW, LBE. Northwest wind will be
stout around 10 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots at times.
.OUTLOOK...
Cool air aloft could result in patchy MVFR cig restrictions north of
PIT from Tuesday-Thursday morning. Scattered lake enhanced
showers are expected from PIT and north Monday-Wednesday
afternoons with only brief restrictions to MVFR possible.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cermak/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...34
AVIATION...MLB
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 12:51 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508250451-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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