PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:36 AM CDT
652
FXUS63 KPAH 240736
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
236 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A pattern change this week will bring below normal
temperatures to the region. Highs will range from the middle
70s to lower 80s with lows falling into the 50s (even upper
40s in a few locations). A few record lows are possible.
- Much of the week will be dry, but chances of rain return to
portions of the region later in the week. However, there
remains fairly high uncertainty.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
An expansive upper trough and region of cyclonic flow extends
from the northern plains and across the Great Lakes this
morning. A surface front is currently moving across the region,
with upstream observations showing dewpoints falling into the
50s behind the front. High pressure will spread south from the
plains and Midwest today offering continued dry conditions and
cooler temperatures. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to mid
80s by the afternoon. Afternoon mixing will allow for some
stronger wind gusts up to 20 mph to mix down to the surface.
We see cooler air filtering in by Monday and continuing through
much of the week associated with broad northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure extending from the northern Plains and
into the Ohio Valley. Highs Monday and Tuesday will largely
remain in the mid to upper 70s, with only a slight warming trend
Wednesday onward. The surface high building over the region
will bring excellent radiational cooling conditions allowing
lows to fall into the 50s area-wide, with a few locations seeing
lows in the 40s. Early to mid week looks to remain dry given
high pressure in place. A passing disturbance is progged to
move from the plains Monday into Monday night. Precipitation
should largely remain south of the region but increasing cloud
cover seems probable with this system.
Late in the week troughing begins to move east with much of the
region remaining in northwest flow. A couple of disturbances
within this flow are progged to move out of the plains and
across the region, although uncertainty is still high at this
time on how these systems impact the region with precipitation.
As previous discussions have mentioned, southeast Missouri is
the most favored locations at this time to see some beneficial
rains should precipitation make its way into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
SCT-BKN bases at 4-6K FT AGL will linger into the evening as a
cold front approaches from the north. Its ultimate passage will
see some mid-high base potential overtop the lower cloud, but
should offer no restrictions other than potential VFR CIGS,
before skies clear altogether as 300+ MB condensation pressure
deficits work down the column. The drier air and light wind that
maintains upon passage should preclude fog inclusion from the
forecast, as guidance TDD's suggest. Impressive dry air
advection tmrw behind the front should result in SKC conditions
excepting some FEW-SCT diurnal base potential around 5K FT AGL,
mainly north and east from KMVN-KEVV/KOWB. Northerlies behind
the fropa may pick up/include some gusts heading into/thru the
planning phase hours of the forecast tmrw.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...Previous Fcter
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:36 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508240736-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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