CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:22 PM EDT
367
FXUS61 KCLE 231747
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
122 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then sweep east through the area tonight into
Sunday, followed by lingering surface troughing persisting through
early next week. High pressure will gradually build across the
region from the west by Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main focus for the near term period will be a cold front
sweeping east through the area late tonight into Sunday. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front late
this afternoon and evening across Northwest Ohio, though
confidence on coverage remains low given an abundance of dry
mid-level air present across the region. The better rain chances
will be found across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania overnight into Sunday morning, though not
anticipating anything too widespread given the mid-level dry air
in place, with models only hinting at a narrow strip of
available moisture.
For the most part, a relative lull in the weather is expected
on Sunday, behind the cold front, but still ahead of the
advancing anomalously- cold air mass across the Upper Great
Lakes. Seasonable temperatures in the low 80s today will fall
slightly into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A more active and cooler, Fall-like weather pattern will
develop for the short term period as series of troughs swing
through the Great Lakes.
The advertised Fall-like airmass will arrive across the area
Sunday night into Monday, wrapping on the backside of a strong
upper-level low just south of Hudson Bay, with multiple surface
troughs and shortwaves expected to move east through the Great
Lakes. This air mass is characterized by 850 mb temperatures
falling as low as 5C on Monday through Tuesday which will also
help contribute moisture and energy for lake enhanced/effect
rain showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The most widespread
precipitation across the area is likely to occur on Monday,
transitioning more to lake effect and becoming more confined to
the snowbelt region of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania by Tuesday.
Below average temperatures are expected on Monday on Tuesday,
with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 on Monday, falling
slightly into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday. Blustery west to
northwest wind gusts of around 20 mph will accompany the Fall-
like air mass. Overnight temperatures will near record-lows at
some sites, with lows dipping into the mid to upper 40s Monday
and Tuesday nights - see climate discussion below for details.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will begin gradually building east across the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday which will result in
improving weather conditions across the area. Could still see
some lingering lake effect rain showers across portions of far
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, particularly earlier
in the day, though low confidence on available low and mid-level
moisture precludes mentionable precipitation chances at this
time.
Quiet weather appears favored for Thursday as high pressure
expands across the Ohio Valley. Will need to begin watching for
another approaching cold front from the north by Friday as
another lobe of upper-level energy dives southeast through the
Great Lakes. Low confidence on the frontal timing precludes
mentionable precipitation chances at this time.
High temperatures will rebound slightly into the low to mid-70s
for the long term period, though will still remain below
average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, cyclonic WSW'erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a ridge continues
exiting E'ward before a cold front sweeps E'ward through
northern OH and NW PA between ~03Z and ~12Z/Sun. Behind the
front, a trough lingers over and near Lake Erie, including our
region, through 18Z/Sun.
Ahead of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend
SW'erly to WSW'erly around 5 to 15 knots. Behind the front,
W'erly to WNW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected.
Primarily fair weather and VFR are expected through the TAF
period. However, isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are
possible for several hours along and ahead of the cold front.
Brief MVFR to IFR are possible with these showers/storms.
Outlook...Lake-effect rain showers are expected this Sunday night
through Wednesday night over and generally east or southeast of Lake
Erie. Note: scattered rain showers associated with a passing
disturbance are possible in all of northern OH and NW PA on Monday.
Lake-effect rain showers may continue this Thursday and occur over
and primarily northeast of Lake Erie. Non-VFR should accompany any
showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine conditions will continue to be fairly good this weekend.
Winds will become south and southwesterly 5 to 15 knots today and
waves of 1 to 2 feet nearshore and 1 to 3 feet offshore. A cold
front will move across Lake Erie tonight with a chance for a few
scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Westerly winds will
follow the passage of the cold front tonight into Sunday 10 to 15
knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. Winds will increase Sunday night
through Tuesday becoming westerly to northwesterly winds of 15 to 20
knots and waves 2 to 5 feet. After nicer lake and marine conditions
this weekend, they will become rougher again for early this week.
Additional Small Craft Advisories and possibly Beach Hazard
Statements for rip currents may be needed late Sunday night through
Tuesday. There may also be the chance for waterspouts on Lake Erie
late Sunday night through Tuesday with the push of cooler
temperatures. Marine conditions will start improving by middle of
next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.
Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
08-26 45(1964) 38(1958) 47(1958) 41(1914) 40(1897) 47(1958)
08-27 48(1969) 36(1946) 49(1963) 44(1914) 43(1969) 47(1954)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77
CLIMATE...CLE
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:22 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508231722-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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