CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:11 AM EDT
501
FXUS61 KCLE 220711
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region into Saturday. A cold
front will then sweep east through the area Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by lingering surface troughing persisting through
mid-next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period as
high pressure gradually exits east of the area on Saturday
ahead of an approaching cold front.
Lingering cloud cover this morning should quickly erode as
higher pressure settles in across the Lower Great Lakes and
Midwest, aided by dry mid-level air mixing down to the
surface. Seasonable temperatures will return today with highs
in the low 80s. Slightly warmer temperatures in the low to
mid-80s are expected ahead of the cold front on Saturday, aided
by a modest southwesterly breeze of around 10 mph. Much of the
area should remain dry Saturday afternoon as a strong mid-level
dry slot punches northeast across the Ohio Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A more active and cooler, Fall-like weather pattern will
develop for the short term period as a cold front and series of
troughs swing through the Great Lakes.
On Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front will sweep east
through the area. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
with the front early Saturday evening across Northwest Ohio,
though confidence on coverage remains low given a lack of mid
and low-level moisture. The better rain chances will arrive
Saturday night into Sunday morning across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania, associated with a lobe of enhanced mid-
level moisture. Otherwise, much of the area is expected to
remain dry on Sunday and only slightly seasonably-cool with
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80.
The advertised Fall-like airmass is expected to arrive across
the area by Monday and Monday night, wrapping on the backside of
a strong upper-level low just south of Hudson Bay, with multiple
surface troughs and shortwaves expected to move east through the Great
Lakes. This air mass is characterized by 850 mb temperatures
falling as low as 5C Monday night which will also help
contribute moisture and energy for lake enhanced showers across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania beginning Monday.
Below average temperatures are expected on Monday, with highs in
the upper 60s to near 70 in addition to blustery westerly wind
gusts of around 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active and cooler weather pattern is favored to persist
through much of the long term period as another lobe of upper-
level energy dives south across the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
leading to another round of lake enhanced rain showers across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Coverage could be a
bit broader with this round, perhaps extending west of the I-77
corridor, given the north to northwest wind component. Just like
on Monday, temperatures will be well-below average in the upper
60s to near 70 with gusty northwesterly winds of around 20 mph.
High pressure will begin gradually building east across the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday, with any lingering
lake enhanced rain showers expected to dissipate. However, with
the cold upper air mass remaining in place, this could lend
itself to a couple of chilly to near-record low nighttime
temperatures on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and Wednesday
night/Thursday morning as temperatures dip into the 40s. High
pressure is favored to become firmly in control by Thursday as
the August sun helps return temperatures back to near-average in
the upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The general message for aviation weather and this TAF update
will be mostly VFR conditions are expected. The exception will
be for some MVFR ceilings and light patchy fog redeveloping
through sunrise this morning. Scattered to broken stratus with
VFR to MVFR ceilings will develop now through sunrise. There
will also be some light fog of 3sm to 5sm developing between 8z
and 12z this morning. FDY may have some potential of IFR
ceilings and 2sm light fog between 10z and 14z this morning.
Scattered to broken ceilings will lift back to VFR or above 3500
feet by late morning through the afternoon. Skies will clear out
late this afternoon into the evening with VFR. Winds will be
light around 4 to 7 knots from the northeast and/or light and
variable.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through this Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine conditions have improved this morning with east or to
northeasterly winds of 8 to 12 knots and waves generally 1 to 3
feet. High pressure is building over the eastern Great Lakes region
today. Winds will continue to be from the northeast 5 to 12 knots
today and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Southerly winds will return tonight
10 knots or less. On Saturday, winds will become southwesterly 10
knots or less and wave of 2 feet or less. A cold front will move
across Lake Erie Saturday night. Westerly winds will follow the
passage of the cold front Saturday night into Sunday 10 to 15 knots
and waves of 1 to 3 feet. A secondary cold front will push through
the Great Lakes region late Monday. Westerly to northwesterly winds
of 10 to 20 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet will return Monday through
Tuesday. The nicer lake conditions this weekend will become rougher
again early next week. Additional Small Craft Advisories and
possibly Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents may be needed
early next week. There may also be the chance for waterspouts on
Lake Erie early next week with the push of cooler temperatures.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:11 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508220711-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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