CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 1:32 PM EDT
165
FXUS61 KCLE 211735
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area into Saturday before a low
pressure over northern Ontario moves a cold front east Saturday
night. A surface trough will linger over the area into the start of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
900 AM Update...
Extended the low end POPs in the northeasterly flow off Lake
Erie with drizzle as well into the early afternoon hours as the
low level moisture looks to be stubborn to erode. Minor
temperature adjustments for the afternoon today, but still
remaining on the cool side.
Previous Discussion...
As a Canadian high pressure begins to nudge south towards the
region, a lingering meso-low continues to stream a line of light
lake enhanced rain showers and drizzle to areas along the
lakeshore and west of I71. This is due to the ongoing
northeasterly flow across Lake Erie and cooler 850mb
temperatures sustaining some lake induced instability. These
showers are expected to continue into this afternoon, but the
entire area is expected to remain cloudy today. Drier air from
the aforementioned high pressure will allow precipitation to end
tonight with dry conditions persisting through Friday. High
temperatures today will remain cool with a sustained northeast
flow resulting in high in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows
will remain mild for much of the area, falling into the low to
mid 60s, with the exception of far NEOH and NWPA which will
likely fall into the mid 50s. Temperatures on Friday warm a bit
more under the high pressure, climbing into the low 80s for much
of the area with slightly cooler temperatures possible closest
to the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will linger over the area through Saturday
afternoon, allowing for dry conditions to persist ahead of a
deepening trough west of the area. This trough axis is expected
to pivot across the area Saturday night, bring a fairly robust
cold front east across the area. This cold front will mark a
transition to a much different weather pattern as much cooler,
below normal temperatures will push over the area. In regards to
the front itself, this will present the next chance for
widespread showers to occur across the area with thunder likely
given the robust dynamics and frontogenetic forcing. Overall
timing for the cold front passage is not diurnally favorable,
however models continue to suggest CAPE values climbing in
excess of 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values between 30-40 knots.
These atmospheric conditions may provide enough lift and energy
to produce isolated severe storms, although confidence is not
very high given the less favorable timing. Saturday night into
early Sunday will need to continue to be monitored for severe
weather potential. Either way, PWAT values near 1.5 inches and
the robust nature of the environment should support locally
heavy rainfall and result in the potential for localized
ponding.
On Sunday, the Upon frontal passage, will be entering an environment
with cold air advection across the Great Lakes with a Canadian
airmass spilling into the region, and 850mb temperatures down
well into the single digits. Northerly winds and likely lake
effect showers due to the high difference between the 850mb
temperatures and the lake water surface temperatures will be the
story for early next week. Will not come out of the 60s for
portions of the eastern CWA as a result, low to mid 70s westward
into northwest Ohio.aforementioned cold front will push east of
the area and allow a surface trough to become established
across the region. CAA from the northwest will push 850mb
temperatures of 8-10C and falling across Lake Erie. Given the
very warm lake temperatures, this will mark the beginning of a
period of a couple days where lake enhanced rain showers will
stream across portions of the primary and secondary snowbelts.
Expect these lake effect showers to persist through Sunday
night.
High temperatures on Saturday will be the last seasonably warm day
across the area with highs in the low to mid 80s. On Sunday, these
temperatures will come down a bit, dropping into the upper 70s.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s on Friday night before
falling into the low to mid 50s by Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will continue to be impacted by below normal
temperatures as a broad upper level lingers. At the surface, a
trough will continue to allow for a persistent northwest flow across
Lake Erie with 850mb temperatures falling as low as 4-5C. This will
keep the potential for lake enhanced showers through midweek as a
Canadian high pressure tries to slowly nudge east. Will have to
monitor the timing and progression of this high, but for now models
are in good agreement with the surface trough lingering. High
temperatures through the period will be in the upper 60s to low 70s,
much more characteristic of the fall months. Overnight lows will
fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. These below average temperatures
are expected to persist past the long term period with CPC 6-10 and
8-14 temperature outlook ranging from below to much below normal for
this time of year. If there is any silver lining to the cooler
temperatures, conditions will be much less humid.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly NW'erly to N'erly flow aloft is expected through 18Z/Fri
as a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes. At the surface, the ridge continues to build slowly from
the western Great Lakes and vicinity as a trough exits E'ward
and S'ward from the OH Valley area. Accordingly, our regional
surface winds trend N'erly to NE'erly around 10 to 15 knots,
with occasional gusts up to about 20 knots through ~22Z/Thurs.
Thereafter, our regional surface winds trend light and variable
as a weakening MSLP gradient accompanies the building ridge.
Light lake-effect rain showers with periodic MVFR to IFR
visibility are expected to continue to stream generally SW'ward
from Lake Erie, across much of NE OH and north-central OH,
through ~22Z/Thurs, including at/near KCLE and KMFD. These
showers should end between ~22Z/Thurs and 00Z/Fri due, in part
to low-level dry air advection causing lake-induced instability
to wane. Widespread low clouds and resulting MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected to scatter-out by 00Z/Fri and then
dissipate soon thereafter. Note: appreciable nocturnal cooling
amidst sufficient lingering low-level moisture, clearing sky,
and easing surface winds should allow widespread mist with MVFR
to perhaps IFR visibility to form around 09Z/Fri, inland from
Lake Erie. Any mist should dissipate with diurnal warming by
13Z/Fri and give way to VFR region-wide.
Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through this Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
The main concerns for this marine forecast update continues to
be the rough conditions on Lake Erie due to a stout
northeasterly flow causing higher waves. The pressure gradient
between high pressure near the Upper Great Lakes and Hurricane
Erin off the Carolina Coast this morning is still bringing
persistent northeasterly flow over Lake Erie and that will
continue through this afternoon. This northeasterly flow will
gradually start to decrease by this evening and overnight but it
may take a little more time for the waves and overall
conditions on Lake Erie to relax tonight. We have maintain the
marine headlines with no changes regarding the Beach Hazard
Statements and Small Craft Advisories for today into this
evening. Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots will continue today and
waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected in the nearshore waters. The
high risk for rip currents and hazardous swimming conditions
which will continue today into tonight for almost all of our
lakeshore and beach areas along the south shore of Lake Erie.
Much better marine conditions will return on Friday and
Saturday. High pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes
on Friday. Winds will become more Easterly around 10 knots or
less on Friday and waves will generally be 1 to 2 feet. As the
center of high pressure exits towards the East Coast Friday
night, the low level flow will become southerly 10 knots or
less with waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds will shift southwesterly on
Saturday and increase 5 to 15 knots with waves 2 feet or less. A
cold front will move across Lake Erie by Saturday evening with
a wind shift from the west behind the frontal passage. For
Saturday night and Sunday, westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots are
expected and waves will be generally 1 to 2 feet. The wind flow
will shift northwesterly by Monday 10 to 15 knots and that will
slightly increase the onshore flow as well as waves of 1 to 3
feet early next week. A fall like weather pattern with a large
upper level trough and cyclonic low level flow will develop by
early to middle of next week. This weather pattern chance may
bring another round gusty westerly to northwesterly winds over
Lake Erie and the potential for higher waves again. Headlines
for Lake Erie may possibly return by early to middle of next
week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ143>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 1:32 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508211732-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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