CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 3:48 AM EDT
786
FXUS61 KCLE 190748
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as
low pressure move into the region from the west. A warm front will
lift north Tuesday into Wednesday with the cold front moving through
on Wednesday. The low will exit to the east late Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the region on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure creating dry and cool conditions will continue through
this evening into Tuesday. A low pressure system will push into the
Great Lakes region early on Tuesday with the accompanying warm front
moving north across the area. Precipitation chances will increase
Tuesday afternoon as the low pressure system approaches. There will
be a low potential for strong thunderstorms with strong winds being
the main threat, though this will be isolated given the weak shear
lack of forcing. Timing will be key as well as it will be focused
more during the afternoon/early evening on Tuesday for areas west of
I-77 ahead of the cold front. Confidence is low in severe potential
for that time period and the potential will dissipate as the front
progress east after sunset. Temperatures overnight tonight will be
cool with lows in the low 60s to upper 50s. Some low areas out east
may dip down into the low 50s as well. High temperatures tomorrow
will rebound slightly from today with passing warm front and be in
the mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will exit the region to the east by mid Wednesday as
high pressure builds in from the west. A dry forecast is expected as
the high moves across the Great Lakes region Wednesday evening and
throughout the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler behind
the cold front with highs in the low 80s as north to northeasterly
flow takes over. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 60s down
to the upper 50s in the far eastern portions of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build eastward throughout the day on Friday as a
surface low develops in south-central Canada. The low and
accompanying cold front will move eastward across the region on
Saturday into Sunday bringing potential for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will begin to build into the region on
Sunday into early next with dry weather and cooler temperatures
expected. Through the weekend highs are expected to be in the mid
80s for Friday and Saturday and drop down into the upper 70s behind
the front on Sunday. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern
being the mid to low 60s then dropping into the 50s behind the cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A weak low pressure system moves east across the southern Great
Lakes today and tonight, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected. Brief, isolated periods MVFR
visibilities and ceilings are possible today with and heavier
showers/thunderstorms. SHRA and VCSH are mentioned in TAFs but
held off on TSRA/VCTS due to very low confidence in
location/timing of storms. With the departure of the low
pressure and associated cold front tonight, low ceilings down to
IFR are expected late tonight.
Winds will tend to be out of the south and southwest today,
becoming northwest tonight. Winds should generally be less than
10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected to continue late Tuesday night and
through Thursday with isolated rain showers and low ceilings.
Additional non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly east of I-77.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak low pressure moves eastward across Lake Erie today and
tonight before departing to the east on Wednesday. Southerly
winds of around 10 knots are expected today, becoming northwest
tonight and strengthening to around 15 knots as the the lows
slides eastward across the lake.
Winds become east-northeast on Wednesday, strengthening to
around 20 knots Wednesday evening and lasting through at least
Thursday afternoon. It is a near guarantee that a small craft
advisory and beach hazard statement will be needed for a good
chunk of this time frame for much of Lake Erie, mainly east of
the islands.
Conditions improve Thursday night and Friday as high pressure
builds in.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 3:48 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508190748-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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