MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
559
FXUS64 KMOB 161833
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
An upper-level ridge building over the central US will remain in
place through at least Tuesday before retreating westward by
midweek. For our area, winds aloft this morning have transitioned
to a more northerly to northeasterly flow pattern, allowing for
some slightly drier air to filter into the eastern half of the
local area (PWATs around 1.7 inches over the eastern half of the
area vs 2.1 inches over the western half). Over the coming days,
the drier air will filter through the remainder of the area as
this overall pattern continues through midweek. Afternoon rain
chances this weekend will generally range from 20-40%, lowering
even further as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday. Although
convective coverage is lower, the drier air aloft could allow for
a couple stronger storms, capable of producing gusty winds and/or
small hail, to develop. The pattern begins to transition back to a
wetter pattern by late week as a weak upper trough digs into the
local area. This will allow for deep-layer flow to shift back to a
general southwesterly flow pattern, helping to bring better
moisture back into the region.
With the drier air in place and lower convective coverage expected,
highs through Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s (a few
interior locations could reach the upper 90s). The good news though
is that heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria
as the drier air should allow our afternoon dew points to mix down
into the upper 60s to low 70. With moisture returning on Thursday,
temperatures will trend slightly lower for the remainder of the
period, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows through the
period will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. A Low Risk of
rip currents remain in place through the period. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Isolated to possibly scattered convection will develop this
afternoon, with the better coverage anticipated from southeast
Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama, then convection
dissipates by the early evening. MVFR conditions will accompany the
stronger showers and storms, and some patchy late night fog is
possible, but otherwise VFR conditions prevail through Sunday
morning. Northerly winds around 5 knots are expected this afternoon,
except for becoming west to southwest near the coast, then winds
become light and variable this evening. A northeasterly flow around
5 knots develops Sunday morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025
A diurnal flow pattern is anticipated through the middle
of next week, with an offshore flow developing at night and becoming
onshore in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, no impacts are expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 94 73 93 73 93 73 94 / 10 30 10 40 10 20 10 20
Pensacola 77 92 75 91 76 92 76 92 / 10 30 20 30 10 20 0 10
Destin 78 90 77 90 78 91 78 92 / 20 40 20 30 10 20 10 10
Evergreen 73 95 72 95 72 96 72 96 / 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 20
Waynesboro 74 96 73 96 72 96 72 96 / 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 20
Camden 73 94 72 96 73 96 73 95 / 0 20 10 10 0 10 10 20
Crestview 73 93 72 93 72 95 72 95 / 10 40 10 30 0 20 0 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508161833-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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