JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 2:51 PM EDT
961
FXUS63 KJKL 161851
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will build over the weekend and last
through early next week.
- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
arrives for the middle of next week, which will also knock down
temperatures a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
An expanding CU field has developed across the area, as agitated
cumulus started to develop a few hours ago as a weak wave produced
some weak forcing along the I-75 corridor. This has kicked off some
convection, with isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly traveling
south from Lexington to Monticello, generally along and west of I-75
corridor. These showers and storms are expected to taper off heading
into the early evening. Temperatures around the area are in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with Wayne and Pulaski counties reaching 95 at
the Somerset ASOS and surrounding Mesonets. Skies will clear out
tonight, leading to chances of river valley fog later overnight.
This fog should mix out by 9 or 10 AM tomorrow morning. Temperatures
are expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.
Sunday, high pressure continues to remain strongest southwest of the
County Warning Area (CWA). Further north, a low pressure over
Eastern Canada will feature a trailing cold front, passing through
the Ohio Valley. A combination of this cold front and showers
rolling over the ridge of high pressure will create shower and storm
chances Sunday. Guidance suggests high temperatures will again be in
the lower 90s, however increased moisture and the potential timing
of showers and storms could present some challenges. Currently the
forecast is near the 75th percentile of guidance. If cirrus clouds
linger tomorrow the high could be a degree or two cooler that the
current forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
High pressure at the surface and aloft will strengthen by Monday,
which will largely help to suppress meaningful convective
development. There may be some isolated cells that develop on
Tuesday, but we won't experience appreciable rain and storm
chances until Wednesday, when an inverted trough looks to develop
across eastern Kentucky, and an upper low develops to our west.
The surface boundary will shift to our east by Thursday, but
we'll also find ourselves under a northwest flow aloft with
perhaps a weak shortwave passing through later in the week -- at
least enough to keep isolated to widely scattered convection in
the forecast on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and heat index
values will start to come down on Wednesday, so this hot stretch
of days will come to an end just as our rain chances get going
again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
An agitated cumulus field producing a SCT045 deck has developed
across the I-75 corridor with some isolated showers and storms,
though none are expected to effect any TAF sites. These scattered
clouds should mix out heading into the evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail through the majority of the TAF period, with
some river valley fog expected to develop at some TAF sites after
07Z this evening. Kept reductions into MVFR at current, given
uncertainty in increased moisture tonight, and ongoing showers.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 2:51 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508161851-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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