LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:54 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
607
FXUS63 KLMK 160554
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
154 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hot and humid through early next week, with highs in the 90s. Heat
index values of 105+ are possible Sunday through Tuesday.
* A cold front will likely bring relief from the heat, along with
increasing thunderstorm chances, by the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Convection continues to quickly wind down across central Kentucky
this evening. Last of the convection is diminishing down in the
Lake Cumberland area and should be done in the next 60-90 minutes.
Temperatures the region ranged from the lower 80s in the I-65
corridor and points west, to the upper 70s across the remainder of
central and eastern KY. Look for skies to continue to clear
overnight with light winds. Patchy fog is likely again in the
valleys toward dawn and in areas that received appreciable rainfall
this afternoon. Updated forecast grids/products will be available
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Isolated showers and tstorms have been firing along what is left of
a weak sfc boundary that is located across central KY. These storms
have produced some locally heavy rainfall, lightning and brief gusty
winds. Most of this activity will remain fairly isolated and is
stretching from around Etown and eastward into the Bluegrass and I-
75 corridor. While outflow associated with this activity may fire
off additional showers/storms, expect all of this activity to
diminish and come to an end with the loss of daytime heating.
Speaking of heating, temperatures today have already warmed into the
low/mid 90s this afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s
to low 100s. This will be the theme for the weekend and even into
early next week as temperatures are expected to get warmer over the
next couple of days. More to come in the long term discussion.
Winds will be light and skies will be mainly clear as we go
overnight as strong upper ridging continues to amplify over the
central Plains and mid MS Valley as sfc high pressure continues to
build in over the region. We could see patchy fog once again develop
in the predawn hours but should be more like we had this morning,
with most of any fog relegated to low lying and typical fog prone
locations.
With the amplified ridging to our west and building high pressure
over the region tomorrow, it will be drier and hotter for the start
of the weekend. Highs will mainly be in the mid 90s, with dewpoint
values in the upper 60s/low 70s, heat index values will be in the
upper 90s to right around 100 degrees with mostly to partly sunny
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
The first half of the long term will feature hot and humid weather
Sunday into the start of next week. Amplified upper level ridging to
our west will increase heights and thickness over the Ohio Valley.
This will result in daily highs into the mid/upper 90s through
Tuesday and heat index values of 100-105, approaching very close to
Heat Advisory Criteria. After some discussion this afternoon,
decided to hold off on any heat related headlines but likely going
to issue a special weather statement regarding the heat over the
weekend and into early next week.
We will also remain mainly dry for the next several days as sfc high
pressure will be positioned over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
through the weekend and into the start of next week. The only thing
we are watching for a slight increase in precipitation chances early
in the long term would be a weak sfc boundary dropping out of the
Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. Currently there is less than 20
percent chance of precipitation across portions of our northeast CWA
on Sunday as this boundary works across Indiana and into Ohio.
Heading into the middle of next week, the ridge begins to break down
and retrograde westward. Depending on how quickly this occurs, as
well as the evolution of northern stream waves, the Tuesday forecast
has some bust potential. For now, sticking with the heat with highs
in the mid/upper 90s. However, a cold front will eventually sink
south from the Great Lakes into the region sometime Tuesday into
Wednesday. This boundary will bring relief from the heat along with
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. Highs in the 80s to low
90s look more likely for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
Skies are mainly clear with calm winds to begin this forecast
period. Patchy fog is likely once again through mid-morning, with
impacts to Vis most likely at HNB, and to a lesser extent, LEX and
RGA. Confidence is fairly high in IFR/LIFR fog at HNB, but much
lower at the other terminals. At least some brief MVFR fog looks
fairly likely at LEX/RGA.
After sunrise, fog dissipates. A SCT cumulus field will develop in
the afternoon. In addition, we'll see more thin high clouds drifting
in from the north late this afternoon into tonight. There is a low
chance (20-30%) for some weakening shra/tsra to push into areas
north of I-64 after 00Z Sun. Confidence remains fairly low in the
convective evolution at this time, however. Any convection is likely
to weaken as it attempts to move into the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
tonight for INZ091-092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:54 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508160554-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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