ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 1:56 AM EDT
030
FXUS61 KILN 140556
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions are expected today and Friday, although a stray
shower cannot be ruled out each afternoon, particularly near and
south of the Ohio River. Otherwise, near normal temperatures will
continue into this weekend before a slow warmup evolves by early next
week. The next chance for widespread showers and storms will likely
hold off until the first half of next workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Following the decrease in diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA, skies have
trended mostly clear across the area. With the slowing progression of
the front (drier air), dewpoints in the upper 60s continue to linger
across most of the ILN FA. This, combined with mostly clear skies
and remnant LL moisture from earlier rain, will promote the
development of patchy to areas of FG, particularly in central and
south-central OH and NE/N KY. This will be especially pronounced in
area river valleys and the lower Scioto Valley. An SPS or Dense Fog
Advisory may eventually be warranted as obs will be closely
monitored.
What is left of a front will continue to wash out across the area
through the near term period, with slightly drier air attempting to
filter in from the N amidst weak northerly BL flow. Sfc flow will
generally remain northerly through the near term period, although
afternoon dewpoints will still be in the mid to upper 60s, highest
for locales near/south of the OH Rvr. This is where a low-end (non-
zero) chance for a few afternoon showers will focus, but do think
that coverage of activity will be quite limited. There are also some
hints of a weak LL convergent axis generating some more robust Cu
development once again near the I-75 corridor by midday, so suppose a
spotty SHRA cannot be ruled out in these areas by mid/late
afternoon, either.
Highs today will generally top out in the mid to upper 80s from N to
S, respectively. The low-end diurnally-driven SHRA chances will wane
past sunset, yielding dry conditions area-wide tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The diurnally-driven Cu field and corresponding low-end SHRA chances
will both wane after sunset, yielding dry conditions and mainly
clear skies once again tonight. Temps tonight dip into the lower 60s
in central OH (where the infiltration of dry air will be most
pronounced) to the upper 60s in the Tri-State.
Friday will be a fairly close replica to today. With dewpoints
lingering in the mid to upper 60s, a healthy afternoon Cu field is
expected to sprout once again. However, in the absence of any notable
source of lift or LL/deep-layer shear, the diurnally-driven SHRA
coverage should remain quite limited in nature. The coverage should
remain below a mention of slight chance, but non-zero, by the
afternoon.
Afternoon temps will be a degree or two warmer Friday than will be
the case today -- generally topping out in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees by late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 ridge expands across the central and eastern CONUS for the
beginning of the weekend. Weak flow persists in this regime, but the
H5 height rises will promote an increase to temperature and dewpoint
values. Saturday will primarily have maximum heat index values in the
90s, but Sunday might offer more upper 90s/lower 100 heat indicies.
Overall shower/storm activity should remain pretty limited over the
weekend given the lack of dynamic forcing. There may be better
potential for diurnal shower/storm activity on Sunday, mainly
along/north of I-70 as the H5 ridge slightly dampens. Similar
conditions expected on Monday as the general flow pattern remains
unchanged, resulting in hot/humid temps and at least a slight chance
of thunderstorms.
Breakdown of the H5 ridge expected on Tuesday, which would result in
better coverage in showers/thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley.
Shortwave energy and an associated surface cold will eject through
the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, eventually providing some relief
from the heat and humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected for the beginning of the TAF period, with
the main concern through daybreak being the expectation for BR/FG
development. MVFR to IFR BR/FG is expected at the TAF sites,
especially between 09z-12z, particularly at KLUK, KILN, and KLCK.
LIFR is expected in the valley at KLUK. VSBY will improve by 13Z.
VFR conditions are then expected through the day, with SCT to BKN VFR
Cu expected past 15Z-16Z. NNE winds at around 5kts will evolve
through the afternoon.
While a stray SHRA cannot be completely ruled out, mainly at
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY, the limited coverage precluded inclusion of even a
PROB30 at this juncture.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 1:56 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508140556-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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