The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 13, 12:38z for portions of BOX
406
WUUS01 KWNS 131239
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VALID TIME 131300Z - 141200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 42560084 43080153 43690176 44140161 44500098 44670028
44549903 44159782 43689716 42779700 42259759 42069829
42259987 42560084
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 42450373 42920440 44010480 44720453 45270400 45670344
45610141 45509908 45219784 44839676 44319637 43849637
43359662 42749706 42129783 41609940 41640072 41770161
42120289 42450373
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 44309638 43509611 42309625 41739680 41449746 41299919
41420041 42110290 42620415 42980579 43400723 44060789
44620800 45360717 45660591 45650268 45509909 45219784
44829675 44309638
0.05 45567158 44567152 43527093 43067063 42617053 41567121
40737274 39037454 38727535 38467647 38287738 38157818
38257921 38597964 39757984 40507936 41167656 41687524
42167439 42967378 43987362 45607365
0.15 44329948 43859839 43359805 42829835 42459929 42620084
42930203 43380314 43820391 44330420 44760403 44930308
44840193 44580051 44329948
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 44760403 44930308 44840193 44580050 44329948 43859839
43359805 42829835 42459929 42620084 42930203 43380314
43820391 44330420 44760403
MRGL 45360717 45660591 45650268 45509908 45219784 44839675
44309638 43509611 42329624 41739680 41449746 41299919
41420041 42110288 42620415 42980579 43400723 44060789
44620800 45360717
MRGL 45567159 44567152 43517092 43057063 42617053 41567121
40737274 39037454 38727536 38467648 38287740 38157818
38267921 38597964 39757984 40507936 41167656 41697524
42187438 42957378 43987362 45607365
TSTM 49509615 47209318 43829382 41499607 40459783 40429952
41060178 41040358 39430386 39050391 36840267 34720379
32650117 32829923 34219680 36479272 38519010 38228688
39688601 42468211 99999999 46156601 45706823 44446983
42407009 40647062 99999999 31721361 33931379 36031409
36911336 37111199 35550944 36040873 37840869 40260603
41530472 42460458 42720598 41930773 42281070 42021163
40911312 39141475 37611645 36911787 37131899 37821991
39321953 41461802 42561666 42951557 43371459 43971404
45351422 46391324 47191203 47601090 48170789 49590663
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
2WX 50 SSE 2WX 55 NNW PHP 20 NW PIR 40 NNW 9V9 20 WNW MHE 30 S MHE
30 NE ONL 30 W ONL 20 SW VTN 55 E CDR 40 N CDR 45 WSW RAP 60 WNW RAP
60 SSW 2WX.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
SHR 30 WNW 4BQ 30 SW Y22 30 W ABR 35 ESE ABR 20 ESE ATY 20 E BKX 30
WSW OTG 10 SE SUX 35 W TQE OLU 25 ESE BBW 25 NE LBF AIA 40 N TOR 25
NW DGW 50 NW CPR WRL 45 N WRL 40 NNW SHR.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
EFK 20 WSW BML 25 E LCI 10 ESE PSM 30 NE BOS 15 WSW EWB 20 ESE ISP
30 S ACY 30 NNE SBY 15 NNW NHK 45 SSW DCA 15 E CHO 15 W SHD 25 SSE
EKN 10 NNE MGW 15 N LBE 20 ESE IPT 25 W MSV 40 NNE MSV 15 N ALB 40
SE SLK 75 NE MSS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ROX 20 SW HIB
30 S MKT 15 NW OMA 35 ESE HSI 35 SW EAR 40 NNW IML 30 W SNY 15 NW
LIC 20 SW LIC 30 S SPD 35 SSW TCC 35 NNE BGS 40 NE ABI 15 ESE ADM 25
NW FLP 15 W BLV 40 ENE EVV 15 ESE IND 40 ESE MTC ...CONT... 85 E HUL
35 SW HUL 10 N AUG 45 E BOS 50 SW ACK ...CONT... 85 SE YUM 60 ENE
BLH 55 N IGM 20 SE SGU 35 WNW PGA 35 W GUP 35 N GUP 40 N CEZ 55 WSW
FCL 25 NNE CYS 35 NW TOR 30 ESE CPR 30 WNW RWL 35 WSW BPI 35 ESE MLD
50 ENE ENV 10 SSE ELY 45 SE TPH 40 SE BIH 35 WSW BIH 50 NE MER 20 SE
RNO 40 NNW WMC 50 NNW OWY 55 SE BOI 15 WSW SUN 35 NNE SUN 25 NW SMN
20 SSW 3DU 35 WSW GTF 25 ENE GTF 60 W GGW 95 N GGW.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Aug 13, 12:38z for portions of BOX (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250813_1300.html)
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