MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 1:43 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...
623
FXUS64 KMOB 121843
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
143 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
A rather soggy period continues before we heat back up and second
summer comes knocking. The main driver for the more active
weather will be an inverted trough/easterly wave near the mouth of
the Mississippi river that will continue to track west across the
northern Gulf. This disturbance has brought an increase in
moisture to the area and widespread showers and storms. PWATS
have climbed to over 2 inches once again, and rain chances will
follow as numerous to widespread showers and storms are once again
expected late this evening and into the day on Wednesday. Given
the high moisture value and overall weak steering flow, heavy
rainfall will be the greatest concern as storms could quickly
produce a couple of inches in an hour. Luckily for the flooding
potential storms have continued moving and have brought a more
steady 2 to 4 inches across the coastal areas and slightly less
inland. However, Given the PWAT situation and soggy soils, there
is still some low end concerns for Flash Flooding across the
Florida panhandle into coastal alabama late tonight into
Wednesday. Flooding concerns will likely be confined to urban poor
drainage areas. We will have to keep a close eye overnight on
trends and see how the forecast evolves.
Rain chances should begin to taper off as the system tracks west
and upper level ridging builds back into the area by Thursday
bringing a drier but hotter weekend. Expect a more summertime
pattern to setup with your standard scattered afternoon
thunderstorms along the seabreeze and rather uncomfortable
temperatures and humidity. The big concern will likely be heat as
temperatures climb into the mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s.
Heat indices will climb back into the low 100s making for a rather
sticky weekend. BB-8
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Showers and storms diminish by early evening, then redevelop near
the coast overnight and spread inland Wednesday morning. IFR/MVFR
conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms.
Southeasterly to southerly winds 5-10 knots diminish by early
this evening, then a predominately southerly flow at 5-10 knots
develops Wednesday morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
A light to moderate easterly flow today will turn more southerly
by tonight as a weak disturbance moves across the northern Gulf.
Increased showers and storms will be expected across the marine
zones through Wednesday before returning to a more traditional
summertime pattern by the weekend. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 88 74 92 75 93 74 94 / 60 70 30 60 10 50 10 30
Pensacola 78 88 78 91 77 93 78 94 / 60 80 30 50 10 30 10 30
Destin 78 88 79 89 79 91 79 92 / 50 70 30 50 10 30 10 30
Evergreen 73 88 73 92 73 94 73 95 / 40 80 20 60 10 40 10 30
Waynesboro 73 88 71 92 71 93 72 94 / 40 70 30 60 10 40 10 30
Camden 73 85 73 91 73 92 73 93 / 50 70 20 60 10 30 10 20
Crestview 74 88 73 91 74 93 74 94 / 40 70 20 70 10 50 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 1:43 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508121843-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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