ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 6:50 PM EDT
721
FXUS61 KILN 102250
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first
part of the week, bringing mostly dry conditions and above normal
temperatures. A weak cold front will move through midweek bringing
some showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will keep light winds
and with fairly high based diurnal CU with an isolated shower
possible especially west of I-75. Light winds and ample low level
moisture will again bring valley fog across especially the south.
Overnight lows generally in the upper 60s east with near 70 across
the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very small progression of the mid level trough and associated
frontal boundary in the central plains, as the eastern CONUS ridge
slow to drift eastward. But enough movement and increased instability
could bring isolated convection generally along/west of I-71 in the
20-23z timeframe. Above normal temperatures continue with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows increasing slightly to the near 70
to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 troughing moves through the Great Lakes heading into the mid-
week. Additionally, guidance is in decent agreement that a swath of
deeper moisture will move into the Ohio Valley during this time. This
will lead to a better chance of diurnal showers and storms with
slightly lower high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Locally
heavy rain can't be ruled out with the storms that develop.
After this, mid-level ridging will begin to build back into the area
from the southwest. Apparent temperatures will reach into the 90s
Tuesday, then again heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT to briefly BKN VFR Cu will persist through 01z before
dissipating altogether thereafter, yielding clear skies for the
overnight area-wide. MVFR to IFR VSBY due to BR is likely again at
KLUK in the 08-12z timeframe. After 16z, expectation is prolific
(SCT/BKN) VFR Cu development once again, with slightly more favorable
conditions for isolated convection again for wrn terminals during the
afternoon, not enough to mention in TAFs at this juncture.
Light/VRB winds through 15z will go out of the SW at around 5kts by
the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 6:50 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508102250-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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