PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:42 AM EDT
752
FXUS61 KPBZ 091042
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
642 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will persist as temperature slowly rises through
Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the
mid week period with the gradual progression of an upper level
trough.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Area temperature will be a few degrees higher than Friday.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Update: No major changes have been made to this period.
Isolated river valley fog will dissolve by 8am.
A persistence forecast today as the region remains under the
influence of a New England surface high that promotes dry
weather with weak southeast flow. Subtle height rises aloft as
an upper ridge shifts east will aide in area temperature rising
a few degrees above Friday's readings, which will be around 5
degrees above the daily average.
Hi-res modeling and data via airnow.gov suggest some wildfire
smoke trapped beneath an inversion may linger around the
region. This may create some hazy visibilities through the
morning that dissipates in the evening. For further
information on the impacts it may have on air quality, please
visit the airnow.gov website or your state's department of
environmental protection website.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperature will rise above normal over the weekend, but
limited moisture should keep heat indices below criteria.
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Upper ridging is expected to trickle farther east through Monday
in response to a slow-moving upper trough traversing the
northern Great Plains. Though there will be some alteration in
the positioning of the surface high, the outcome of these
features will be fairly negligible with high confidence in a
continuation of prior conditions. Expect temperature to settle
in the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday with limited
moisture advection helping to keep heat indices below advisory
criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Trend favors the return of precipitation more
Wednesday/Thursday than Tuesday
- Above normal temperature and convection remain in forecast to
end the week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble guidance is trending slower with the eastward
progression of the upper trough through the northern Great
Lakes, meaning convection is now more likely to return Wednesday
versus Tuesday. As a result, Tuesday is likely to be similar to
Monday with most areas remaining dry and temperature hovering in
the lower 90s with dew points holding in the mid 60s.
Wednesday is currently the favored day for the return of
widespread convective potential as a result of the trough
passage. However, there remains notable variations in trough
depth as it crosses with other scenarios suggesting further
weakening of upper flow that lends to weak mesoscale features
driving convective potential through the end of the week. Those
scenarios would lend to a more bearish probability of a given
location seeing a thunderstorm. The main takeaway at this time
is increased, if only localized/scattered, precipitation chances
mid to late week while area temperature remains above the
seasonal averages. Lack of weak flow and only marginal CAPE
should preclude severe risks. However, PWATs that are likely
(40-60% chance) of reaching the 90th percentile may foster a
flood risk, though dry antecedent conditions should further
limit that concern.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under a ridge of high
pressure. The CU rule and model soundings indicates a few/sct
diurnal cumulus layer should develop again today, with some high
clouds above. Wind should generally be from the SE at 5kt or
less.
Outlook...
VFR is generally expected through Monday under a ridge of high
pressure. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return
Tuesday as a cold front approaches. Higher chances for
showers/thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as the front
crosses the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...WM
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:42 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508091042-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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