JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 7:38 AM EDT
930
FXUS63 KJKL 081138
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
738 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-While most of the area will remain dry and warm today, a low
chance for a few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms
exists, primarily southwest of KY-15.
-The weekend looks even better, with dry conditions and warm
temperatures expected for both Saturday and Sunday, making it
great for outdoor plans.
-A significant pattern change arrives for the new work week,
bringing a more humid pattern with daily chances for scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms starting Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
Fog in the river valleys will lift/dissipate by 9 to 10 AM at most
locations. Forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
Tendrils of fog are expanding through the sheltered river valleys
early this morning as temperatures settle back into the mid and
upper 60s. Skies are clear with the exception of a few high clouds
moving into our southwestern counties. The latest analysis shows
an ~1026 mb surface high centered south of Nova Scotia with a
ridge axis extending southwestward along Central/Southern
Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley. At the upper levels, a
prominent ~596 dam high is centered over New Mexico with ridging
generally extending northeast into the Upper Great Lakes. Further
east, a split flow pattern is noted with a weak cyclonic
circulation over Upstate South Carolina but with shortwave ridging
from the Mid-Atlantic Coast up into New England. Well upstream,
an ~567 dam closed low is crossing the Northern Rockies as it
rides over the 500 hPa high further south. That low supports an
~996 mb surface reflection over the South Dakota Black
Hills/Badlands and its associated cold front trailing back into
the Great Basin.
For today, the weak 500 hPa northerly flow on the periphery of
the Southwest US high will keep relatively drier air over the
Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. A southeasterly component of the low-
level flow may allow for modest amounts of moisture to wrap in
from the weak upper low to our southeast and, combined with
diurnal heating, allow sufficient destabilization for isolated
deep convection closer to the Virginia-Kentucky border, across the
Cumberland River Basin, and northward along the Pottsville
Escarpment to near the Red River Gorge. Forcing is very limited;
however, some of the guidance resolves weak positive vorticity
advection at 500 hPa sinking south from the Mountain Parkway this
afternoon and evening. Regardless, most locales should remain
rain-free. Any convection should wane quickly with the loss of
heating this evening, allowing for another quiet, mostly clear
night with efficient radiative cooling, and fog development in the
more sheltered river valleys. On Saturday, convection will be
even more suppressed as heights rise aloft. Weak lapse rates,
along with a mid-level cap and dry air, will inhibit most
convection. However, a very isolated shower or rumble of thunder
cannot be entirely ruled out, primarily toward the Bluegrass
region and in the vicinity of Big Black Mountain.
In sensible terms, look for river valley fog to lift/dissipate
mid-morning with mostly sunny skies prevailing thenceforth through
the remainder of the day. A few showers or an isolated
thunderstorm are possible (~20% chance), primarily southwest of
the KY-15 corridor, but a vast majority of the area stays dry. It
will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s. For tonight,
look for any showers or thunderstorms to dissipate in the evening
with fog developing again overnight under mostly clear skies. It
will be seasonable with temperatures settling back into the lower
and middle 60s. Mostly sunny skies return for Saturday with
temperatures slightly warmer, rising into the mid to upper 80s and
even a few places flirting with 90F. A very isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the Virginia-Kentucky border
and also near/across the Bluegrass.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
The long-term period opens Saturday night with 500 hPa ridging
building northeastward across the Commonwealth and into the
Northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, a 500 hPa low is riding just north of
the US-Canada border over Prairie Provinces with its surface
reflection lifting toward the Hudson Bay. An associated upper-
level trough trails back into the Central Plains along with an
attendant surface cold front.
The upper level ridging over the Commonwealth will begin to break
down on Sunday night/Monday as the upper-level trough and cold
front approach. Low-level flow will veer southerly and advect a
tropical air mass back north, especially during the day on Monday
as the LREF shows mean PWATs surging back above 1.5 inches by the
afternoon. Guidance favors the front stalling northwest of the
Ohio River for the middle of next week as the parent upper level
trough fills and ejects northeast, orphaning the boundary. By late
in the week, broad ridging becomes re-established over the
Central CONUS, though disturbances will continue to ride over the
ridge and impact the Ohio Valley. Persistent south to southwest
flow is expected to keep PWATs in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range for
most of the period from Tuesday onward. As a result, daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are likely to fire off each day with
activity strongly correlated with the diurnal heating cycle.
In more sensible terms, look for a dry day for all of eastern
Kentucky on Sunday with moderate humidity levels and high
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s after morning lows
mainly in the mid 60s. Humidity levels climb back to muggy levels
for the new work week with the daily threat of showers and
thunderstorms returning, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. During that time, daily high temperatures slowly
retreat back into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday
and nighttime low temperatures tick up modestly to around 70F from
Tuesday night onward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR conditions were reported at the TAF sites at issuance. Valley
fog will lift and dissipate by 13-14z, leaving VFR conditions
area-wide. An extensive cumulus field is expected to develop late
morning and afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out southwest of the KY-15 corridor, but forecaster
confidence was too low to mention at the LOZ or SME TAFs at this
time. Fog is favored to redevelop in the river valleys tonight,
however the threat of impacts at the TAF terminals appears low at
this time. Winds will remain light at around 5 kts or less through
the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 7:38 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508081138-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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