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Emergency Information => Weather Info => Topic started by: ThreatWebInternal on August 09, 2025, 06:22:05 AM

Title: [Alert]PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 12:04 PM CDT
Post by: ThreatWebInternal on August 09, 2025, 06:22:05 AM
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 12:04 PM CDT

190 
FXUS63 KPAH 051704
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog is possible early this morning and then
  possibly again tomorrow morning.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue today before
  trending drier during the latter half of the week. More rain
  chances return into early next week.

- Temperatures will trend warmer to near normal by Wednesday
  along with an increase in humidity levels. Heat Index values
  are forecast to remain below 100 into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Monitoring for fog, possibly dense, this morning. Dewpoint
depressions are 0 to 1 area wide, observed and model soundings
and dewpoint trends are a little ambiguous as to whether the
moisture profile will be supportive for fog so will monitor that
for potential advisories through the pre-dawn hours.

For today the upper shortwave trough overhead will stay in the
area, with the best lift aloft to the east of the area. Expect
a little less coverage than what we saw today and have 20-30 pct
PoPs in the forecast focused over the eastern half of the CWA.
Rainfall rates were high today with slow storm motion, with 1.5
PWATs and 12000 ft warm cloud layer depth could see locally
heavy rain again.

The trend of moving the trough to the east of the CWA after
today continues and we should remain dry forecast wise for at
least a few days. Afternoon dewpoints may mix down a little to
minimize our afternoon peak heat index value based on the
850-700mb moisture decreasing a little as the trough moves east.
We then get into a warm but not oppressively hot pattern through
the weekend with the aformentioned weak cut-off upper low
staying just to our east. A more progressive pattern then
emerges and starts to perturb things into early next week with
higher humidity and returning rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

SCT-BKN low VFR to MVFR cumulus decks will gradually lift to
VFR by 20-21z. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
development will continue through this afternoon before
diminishing. Fog development is likely again late tonight
(mainly in the 06-13z window), with MVFR to IFR restrictions
expected at all terminals. Winds will be light and variable this
afternoon, becoming calm overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 12:04 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508051704-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)

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