ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 7:07 PM EDT
291
FXUS61 KILN 022307
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
707 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected locally through at
least midweek, with a gradual return to more seasonably humid
conditions. This may be accompanied by some low end daily afternoon
shower and storm chances, but coverage should remain fairly limited
through midweek. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
are expected through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At the sfc, very dry air remains entrenched across the region with
sfc high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. As the high drifts
to the E into the interior NE CONUS by Sunday, some return flow will
begin to emerge once again.
Temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 50s once again tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday through the first part of the workweek, attention will
turn to a slow-moving, meandering weak low across the SE CONUS,
which will slowly drift to the NW through the TN Vly into the SW OH
Vly by Monday/Tuesday. This will occur on the wrn periphery of the
departing high, but the LL flow locally should largely remain out of
the E/SE, which means that the best moisture advection should occur
to the SW of the ILN FA through early week. There certainly will
still be some erosion to the dry air locally, but it will happen
rather slowly through the coming days. The best chance for a stray
afternoon shower/storm will be across parts of N KY into SE IN both
Sunday and Monday, but even these prospects should remain limited in
nature given the prevalence of easterly LL flow through the time
period maintaining relatively dry air in the area. Most, if not all,
of the ILN FA will remain dry at least through Sunday, and probably
Monday as well.
Highs on Sunday will top out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
generally still in the upper 50s. Temps Sunday night dip to around
60 degrees, with some mid/upper 50s still possible in central OH
where the dry air will remain the longest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will remain on the western fringe of a surface high
centered over southeastern Canada this week. The synoptic conditions
will be slow to evolve. A gradual warming and moistening trend
occurs through the end of the week with the highest theta e air
arriving Thursday and Friday on southerly winds. Increasing
afternoon shower/storm chances accompany the more summerlike air
later in the week. Ensemble guidance suggests lows remain above
early August averages while highs remain slightly below average
until Thursday or Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the period. There will once again be higher-based cumulus
on Sunday. Once winds drop below 10 kt early, they will stay below 10
kt, remaining out of the northeast to east.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 7:07 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508022307-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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