PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:32 AM CDT
637
FXUS63 KPAH 040632
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend with an increase in humidity levels begins on
today, with temperatures turning more seasonable by the
middle of the week.
- Daily scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday
and Tuesday before trending completely dry during the latter
half of the week. Heavy rain and lightning are the main
concerns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025
A fairly vigorous shortwave trough (by August standards) and
closed low is approaching from the northwest this morning. This
is leading to an area of high clouds roughly overhead and more
disturbed weather to the west. A weak inverted trough is spread
southeast of the shortwave over western Kentucky. The shortwave
is set to move over the region by 12 to 15z this morning, which
will be out of phase with peak heating. This should limit
coverage/intensity just a bit, but the combination of surface
heating and upper-level ascent should result in 40-50% coverage, focused
in the east, through the day today. Shear is very weak and
instability quite limited to severe risks seem low as do flash
flood risk with PWATs only 1.4 to 1.5." Dewpoints will work into
the upper 60s through the day.
This trough sticks around through Tuesday giving us scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trend does seem to be
towards drier conditions through the next several days with the
trough transitioning to a cut-off upper low. I'm not convinced
it will be quite as dry as the NBM suggests but the trend has
been for drier conditions with gradually warming temperatures.
By the weekend there is some hint at a slug of tropical moisture
moving in from the southeast. This will depend on what, if
anything develops off the southeast coast over the next week or
so. Heat index values start to creep up through the week but
peak values stay below 100 for the overwhelming majority of the
forecast area through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
An inverted trof sets up across the flight terminals tonight, as
subtle upper height falls occur. The models suggest a warm
advective pattern with an increase in moisture from the
southeast tonight-into tmrw. The boundary allows for the
moisture pooling to develop into some showers/thunderstorms over
the back half of the forecast, with restricted bases/vsbys
impacting all flight terminals in probability or temporary
fashion.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:32 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508040632-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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