JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 10:26 PM EDT
667
FXUS63 KJKL 030226
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1026 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours on most days.
- This break from the heat and humidity will continue into the
start of the new week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
Rain has finally tapered off this evening in Letcher County,
leaving just a few isolated light showers or sprinkles further
north and west. We have received a few reports of flooding/flash
flooding out of the southeastern portion of Letcher county where
radar rainfall estimates have been woefully underdone. The mesonet
atop Big Black Mountain reported 2.18 inches from the activity
and substantially higher amounts are almost certainly occurred
over the headwaters of the Cumberland River. Looking through the
remainder of the night, it should be quiet for most locations,
though some redevelopment in the shower activity is favored toward
sunrise across much of the Cumberland River Basin downstream from
Pine Mountain.
UPDATE Issued at 647 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue along the VA/KY
border early this evening in association with a weak surface
trough just west of the Appalachian Mountain spine. Nearly
stationary shallow convection in a skinny CAPE environment has put
down localized rainfall amounts in excess of 1.5 in/hr over the
headwaters of the Poor Fork Cumberland River in the last few hours.
This activity is slowly beginning to shift westward very slowly
in tandem with the surface trough feature. As the low-level flow
veers increasingly southeastward, expect downsloping effects to
gradually take hold and suppress the convection as it drifts
westward through late evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
Current satellite reveals multiple cloud decks across the area, with
an inverted trough producing showers and storms over Tennessee and
West Virginia. These showers and storms are expected to develop
through this afternoon across an area mainly along ans south of the
Hal-Rogers/Kentucky-80 corridor. A moisture gradient remains across
Eastern Kentucky, with PWAT values around 1 inch in the northern
part of the area, with PWAT closer to 1.4-1.5 inches closer to the
KY/TN boarder. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast
through this afternoon and early evening, before gradually shifting
to the east/southeast by Sunday morning. Temperatures today will
remain refreshing, in the mid to upper 70s. Morning clouds lingered
through the afternoon yesterday and temperatures were 3-5 degrees
cooler than what was expected. Cloud cover has lingered again today,
however minor improvements in sky condition have been noted so far.
Current temperatures across the area range from the low to mid 70s.
The forecast should remain on track, though the NBM against other
guidance has been running cold the last few days. This may be
another case of "right for the wrong reasons".
Tonight, Valley fog is expected to develop again after midnight, and
last through the early morning, though low clouds and will mix into
the area from the south as showers and storms will increase in
coverage through the day Sunday. Areas to the southwest are more
favored with a better moisture return, with model PWAT from the HREF
Ensembles around 1.7 inches. Further north and east across NE KY and
the KY/WV boarder PWAT is closer to 1.0 inch. With the better
moisture return across the southwest, the WPC has places the area
under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through Sunday. Some
storms could produce high rain rates, and ponding of water in low-lying
or poor drainage areas. Winds will remain light and out of the
east/southeast. Temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s to
low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
Guidance continues to have the period begin with an upper level
ridge in the western Atlantic and another ridge centered over the
Southwest Conus/Northwest Mexico region with that ridge extending
into sections of the Rockies to High Plains. Meanwhile the OH
Valley region should be in an area of upper level troughing
between the two ridges with the axis of this ridging extending
through the MS Valley. At the surface, the period should begin
with a ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the Great Lakes
to mid Atlantic states with a nearly stationary front extending
from the Atlantic across northern FL and near the Gulf coast and
then into portions of the Southern Plains to High Plains/front
range. A weak shortwave is progged by the guidance to be over the
Lower OH Valley at that point. PW per the 12Z HREF mean, an east
to west moisture gradient should be present across the region as
the period begins with values around 1.1 inches nearer to the WV
border and values near 1.5 inches near Lake Cumberland and overall
not quite as substantial as on Sunday.
From Monday to mid week, ridging centered over the Southern
Rockies/NM vicinity is expected to strengthen a build east and
northeast into the Plains and Central Conus and toward the mid MS
Valley. Meanwhile, ridging centered in the Atlantic is also
expected to strengthen a little and also build into FL and the
eastern Gulf. Upper level troughing should remain in between with
the axis of it moving into the Great Lakes to OH and TN Valleys to
sections of the southeast by late Wed. The 00Z LREF has mean PW
increasing to the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range across eastern KY on Tue
and remaining near those levels into Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The upper troughing will keep the potential for clouds from
time to time as well as convection through the period and there
may be weak sfc troughs present across the OH valley as well. A
general diurnal peak in both clouds and convection is anticipated
each afternoon and evening from Monday to Wednesday. The NBM
continues to be rather consistent with temperatures remaining near
normal. With the pattern and time of year not favoring much in the
way of ridge/valley temperature splits/differences for min T and
guidance in overall good agreement, no notable chances were needed
for NBM guidance into the middle of the week.
For the second half of the week, the axis of upper level
troughing or a broad upper low should continue to remain near or
west of eastern KY with ridging centered in the western Atlantic
persisting along with another upper level ridge remaining from
northwest Mexico to NM into portions of the Central to Southern
Plains. An upper trough should also work across sections of
western Canada and the Northwest Conus to Great Basin and parts
of the Northern Rockies during this period and near the Northern
Plains. The surface boundary near the Gulf Coast and into the
Plains may migrate a bit north and east and toward eastern Ky by
the end of the week while a sfc high pressure ridge remains
centered to the northeast of the Commonwealth. In general the
guidance also has a bit of height rises at 500 mb by the end of
the week with a similar magnitude of PW in place. As during the
start of the work week, the second half of the week should favor
diurnally driven convection with some cloud cover at times as well
even outside of the diurnal peak. A slight upward trend in
temperatures is possible to end next week assuming 500 mb heights
rise. Again with the pattern not favoring much in the way of
ridge/valley temperature splits, little if any chances were needed
as compared to the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
VFR conditions north of the Mountain Parkway and generally low-end
VFR to MVFR south continue at TAF issuance. Rain chances increase
enough for a PROB30 mention late this evening at JKL, LOZ as a
weak surface trough drifts westward from the VA/KY border until
associated precipitation diminishes. Otherwise, expect some
lowering of the ceiling overnight and the potential for fog,
especially at LOZ and SME if any extensive clearing develops.
However, even if fog does develop, low-level flow just off the
surface is likely strong enough to inhibit long-lasting, dense fog
at any particular TAF site. Surface winds will generally be
variable to northeast/east at less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 10:26 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508030226-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!