PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 5:27 PM CDT
706
FXUS63 KPAH 022227
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will bring cooler than normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels this weekend through early next
week.
- A small (15-35%) chance of thunderstorms returns to the
forecast Sunday afternoon over the southern KY Pennyrile,
followed by broader daily thunderstorm chances (15-40%)
through Wednesday, with the greatest chances east of the
Mississippi River.
- A gradual warming trend through the week will return
temperature and humidity levels to near normal for the latter
half of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
High pressure dropping into the Ohio River Valley from Canada,
along with northeasterly surface winds, will make for a very
pleasant weekend after the hot and humid latter half of July.
Highs today peak in the lower half of the 80s, 5-10 degrees
below normal, with lows in the 60s. A few locations (mainly in
the northern/western areas) could drop just below 60 tonight.
Dry conditions are forecast through Sunday morning, while a few
showers or storms might sneak into the Pennyrile Sunday
afternoon from the east as a disturbance drifts northwestward
into Central Kentucky.
The system continues to linger and drift towards the Quad State,
broadening the area with 15-40% precipitation chances on Monday.
The approach of a shortwave trough from the west will peak
precip coverage in the area on Tuesday. 500mb heights begin to
increase following the passage of the trough, resulting in a
slow warming trend, while a shift towards a more southeasterly
wind increases moisture. By the end of the week, near normal
conditions are forecast. A drifting upper low in the Deep South
keeps daily low-end precip chances late week towards
Hopkinsville, with better chances further southeast in TN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Surface high pressure retains its influence upon terminal flight
weather this package. The result will be diurnal cu fields in
the lower VFR range, generally FEW-SCT but time/height cross
sections do suggest some BKN CIGS possible by/during the
planning phase afternoon hours of the forecast, so we included
its provisional potential this writing. It is possible a prone
terminal like KMVN rings the obs with some daybreak
fog/restricting vsbys, but with TDD's staying AOA 2-3F even
there, we've removed its mention for now.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 5:27 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202508022227-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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