PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 2:32 AM EDT
259
FXUS61 KPBZ 290632
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected through Wednesday, and a
Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon. Cooler conditions
are then expected with a passing cold front mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Fog possible early this morning
- Heat Advisory in effect for much of the region this afternoon
- Isolated thunderstorms possible south and east of PGH today
---------------------------------------------------------------
Patchy dense fog has developed in portions of eastern Ohio where
pooled boundary layer moisture from afternoon showers lingers.
Given mid-level cloud cover, fog is unlikely to become
widespread. Fog will diminish after sunrise with daytime mixing.
Mainly dry weather is expected today as weak surface high
pressure remains over the area with upper high entrenched across
the central US. A capping inversion should largely preclude
shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon, but isolated
development may be possible in the afternoon. CAMs show focus
for any convection mainly south and east of Pittsburgh. NBM PoPs
have increased to around 20-30%, and up to 45% across
Preston/Tucker counties.
850 temperatures will increase to around 20C today with high
temperatures mostly in the lower 90s this afternoon outside of
the highest terrain, marking the hottest day of the week.
Dewpoint temperatures will once again reach into the low/mid
70s, which, combined with hot temperatures, will create
oppressive heat indices near 100F for much of the region. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for most of the region outside the I-80
corridor and high terrain from noon until 8pm. Isolated heat
relief will be possible from any afternoon thunderstorms that
develop.
Heat and any thunderstorms will diminish after sunset, though
overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s for much of the
region. Overnight humidity will remain high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Hot and humid conditions continue on Wednesday
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and overnight, continuing through Thursday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Upper level high pressure will shift west by Wednesday as a
shortwave trough crosses the upper Great Lakes. This wave, along
with a surface cold front, will approach and cross the Upper
Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday
afternoon as the front approaches and eventually crosses
Wednesday night. Upper level support will actually increased
behind frontal passage, with convective activity increasing
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Ensembles show areas of
greater than 2000 J/kg MUCAPE continuing through much of the
overnight as bulk shear increases to 30-50 kts overnight. Dry
air aloft indicate the potential for strong wind gusts with more
robust storms. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe
weather across most of the region.
The surface front will briefly stall across the region on
Thursday as the upper trough digs across the Upper Ohio Valley.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through much of
the day as a surface wave develops and tracks along the front.
Showers will eventually diminish Thursday night as the trough
and cold front exit.
After another hot day Wednesday, temperature will be noticeably
cooler behind the cold front on Thursday. Highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s will run a few degrees below average, with
overnight lows near average.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry, cooler and less humid weather expected late week through the
weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles confidently show general troughing across the
Northeast Friday through the weekend as high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This should result in a
period of cooler, drier, and less humid conditions into early
next weekend. Surface high pressure will begin to break down
early next week, which will gradually increase rain chances by
Monday. Specifics remain unclear at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Excessive cloud cover may mitigate potential for IFR
stratus/fog early this morning. Latest ensemble guidance shows
roughly a 40% chance from DUJ, increasing to 60% towards the
southwest near ZZV.
Isolated/scattered convection may develop this afternoon across
southwest PA and southeast OH based on Hi-res modeling, but with
ensemble guidance showing 15% or less in probabilities, have
opted to not include in TAFs. Overall, today should largely be
VFR with light wind and scattered cumulus.
Outlook...
Precipitation and restrictions chances become more widespread
Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold
front.
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for more
river valley steam fog) with dry weather Thursday night into the
weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...WM/Rackley
AVIATION...88
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 2:32 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507290632-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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