ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 6:47 AM EDT
971
FXUS61 KILN 291047
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue into the middle of the week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon in the heat of the day with better coverage of
storms later Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front moves through the
area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring drier and cooler
conditions for the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expansive mid level ridge remains from the Southern Plains thru the
southeast US. Slight height rises over the Ohio Valley push the
westerlies a bit farther north. This will result in a reduced threat
for thunder. Also, in a relative sense - slightly drier air is
across mainly northern portions of the area today. There is a signal
for some fog/stratus development this morning especially across the
east/southeast. Any fog or stratus development improves quickly
after sunrise. Due to lack of forcing - have limited any mention of
thunder to isold coverage over the southeast this aftn.
High temperatures to range from 90 north to the lower and middle 90s
south. Heat indices reach near 100 north to around 105 south and a
heat advisory has been continued.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Any isolated convection that develops this afternoon across the
southeast will quickly dissipate with the loss of heating early this
evening. Some patchy fog is possible tonight but signal does not look
as favorable as this morning. Warm lows are expected in the lower
and middle 70s.
Westerlies sag a little south Wednesday but the better forcing
remains north/northwest of the area. Have slight chance pops during
the daytime hours. Heat continues with highs from the upper 80s north
to the lower 90 south. Max heat indices of 100 to 105 look to occur
across the southern half of the FA where a heat advisory is
continued.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The start of the extended period will feature a cold front moving
into/through the region, heralding in the much anticipated drier and
cooler airmass behind it. There is still some discrepancy between
the guidance on time of fropa and how the precipitation shield
associated with this will lay out.
Right now, blend holds onto PoPs Wednesday night through most of
Thursday. With regard to convection, 30-50 knots of bulk shear
swings through the Great Lakes region, so that does open up the
possibility for organized convection, though much remains to be seen
with regard to timing. Concurrent with this thinking, PWATs continue
to be 180% of normal, so heavy rainfall continues to be a concern.
A secondary, and relatively dry, cold front will move through
sometime on Thursday. Behind this, post frontal subsidence and
strong cold air advection kick in. In fact, high temperatures will
be around 10 degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday thanks to the
onset of CAA and ample cloud cover.
This cooling trend will continue through the end of the working week
and into the weekend as northwesterly flow takes over; more
importantly, dew points will begin to drop significantly, falling
into the upper 60s/ low 50s. We dry out through the weekend
underneath a broad region of surface high pressure and should have
much more comfortable temperatures compared to what we've been
experiencing.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of stratus and fog has developed across the north and across
the south with a band of high level clouds across the central
counties.
The fog and low clouds will improve through late morning with VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the day into this
evening. Any convective development is expected to be limited and
southeast of the TAF sites. With light winds and clear skies
additional fog is likely tonight.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ060>062.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-063>065-074.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 6:47 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507291047-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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