PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 6:16 AM CDT
846
FXUS63 KPAH 291116
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat and humidity continue today into Wednesday. An
Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect until Wednesday
evening.
- A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday
night through Thursday, followed by cooler and much less humid
conditions for Friday and the weekend.
- The heat and humidity will begin to creep upward early next
week, along with a return of thunderstorm chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
The brutal heat and humidity will continue through Wednesday as
very stout H5 ridging remains near or over the region. Latest
model guidance is hinting at a slight draw down in dew point
temperatures today and Wednesday, closer to 74-78F rather than
78-82F as seen Monday. Combined with high temperatures in the
lower to middle 90s in most areas, peak heat index values will
climb to around 110F today, and a touch lower on Wednesday.
However, Wednesday will be the fourth consecutive day with
widespread heat index values over 105F, have opted to extend the
Extreme Heat Warning through Wednesday based on duration
criteria.
The much-advertised cold front will make its approach into the
region Wednesday night, initiating scattered thunderstorm
activity that will continue into Thursday. The timing of the
front and storms is a bit slower than forecast on Monday, which
means the more favorable ingredients for organized convection
may stay north of the region. SPC has trimmed the marginal risk
for Wednesday to now only cover areas north of I-64. Rainfall
amounts with this activity look to be fairly modest as it
stands, with most areas forecast to see around 0.10-0.25, but
locally high amounts are possible.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday thanks to the clouds and
precipitation, but the plug won't be pulled on the humidity
until Friday as the dry, temperate post-frontal airmass
arrives along with surface high pressure. Temperature and
humidity levels will be very pleasant for early August, with
high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s Friday and Saturday
and the middle to upper 80s Sunday. More importantly, dew point
temperatures will be in the 60s, which will be very comfortable
after this heat wave.
By Monday, signs of a return to more typical elevated heat and
humidity levels are forecast. Dew point temperature will
creep back into the 70s, and high temperatures will approach 90
degrees. Thunderstorm chances will also return as a disturbance
approaches the region from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Patchy shallow fog will mix away by 13z, with SCT-BKN diurnal CU
developing after 15z. Expected storm coverage looks to be too
low to mention at this time, but could be introduced with the
next forecast package. Signal for fog overnight into Wednesday
morning is strong at CGI, PAH, and MVN, and MVFR/IFR
restrictions have been introduced for the 08-12z Wednesday
period. Winds will be light from the NNE around 4-8 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Wednesday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 6:16 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507291116-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!