LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 4:30 AM EDT
098
FXUS63 KLMK 290830
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dangerously hot and humid weather continues through Wednesday.
* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
convection possible. A few strong storms possible today and
Wednesday. Thursday will be the wettest day.
* Cooler temperatures expected to arrive on Thursday and continue
into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Continued oppressive heat and humidity through Wednesday. Low-level
thickness progs suggest that temps will run very close to
persistence through at least Wednesday, and afternoon heat index
values are expected to top 100 degrees daily. Quite a few locations
could reach a 110 heat index. Will run an Extreme Heat Warning
roughly down my western tier (or two) of counties. The headline will
only run for today at this time, but with a decent chance that we
would extend through Wednesday
Afternoon convection will be isolated and mainly east of Interstate
65 both days as a weak bubble of sfc high pressure migrates across
the Ohio Valley. Without any kinematic forcing, PWATs over 2 inches
support a pulse storm setup with localized flooding and briefly gusty
winds as the stronger storms of the day collapse.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Thursday - Friday...
By late week, the center of the upper ridge continues to retrograde
toward the Rio Grande River Valley, with baggy troughiness sagging
into the eastern CONUS. This will allow for a cool front to drop
into our region. It will be welcome from the aspect of providing
relief to the ongoing heat/humidity, but will also come with the
price of increased shower and storm coverage for Thursday. A bit of
concern for some heavy rainfall potential given focus along a slow
moving boundary that could possibly train, high PWATs (2"+), and
slow storm movement. Current WPC outlook has us in a Marginal Risk,
but will have to watch that through the week to see if the threat
increases. Looking for highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, by
Thursday putting an end to the prolonged heat.
By Friday, the frontal boundary is sinking south of the area, with
mostly dry conditions expected for most of the CWA. May still have
to hang onto some small chances across our south, but overall things
should be notably cooler (low to mid 80s), and drier.
Saturday - Monday...
Seasonably strong surface high pressure centers over the Great Lakes
for the weekend, and then toward New England for early next week.
This will keep "cooler" conditions in place along with a mostly dry
setup. Can't rule out a return of some shower or storm chances
toward the end of the weekend into Monday, but overall should be low
chance coverage, and mainly diurnally driven. Highs during the
weekend should mostly feature low and mid 80s, with a bit of an
uptick by Monday. Lows will be in the 60s through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Main question mark is overnight fog/stratus potential given a very
moist and somewhat stagnant air mass, and all of the terminals
receiving at least some precipitation. Mid/high clouds have largely
scattered out or even dissipated, adding to the concern for
radiation fog. Not sure how valid the crossover temp is as it was
very muggy in the heat of the afternoon before storms turned over
the atmosphere, dropping dewpoints from the mid 70s to around 70.
Will include a period of MVFR vis at SDF, LEX, and BWG around
daybreak, with MVFR cigs below 2000 feet at SDF and LEX. Vis will be
fairly quick to improve as solar heating helps to lift the stratus
deck.
Light/variable winds overnight will set up out of the north by mid-
morning, with speeds 6-8 kt during the mixy portion of the
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ025-
028>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>072.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ076>079-084-
090>092.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ083-089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS/BJS
AVIATION...RAS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 4:30 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507290830-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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