LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 3:36 PM EDT
816
FXUS63 KLMK 241936
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
336 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana
and part of central Kentucky
* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
convection possible
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s and low 90s, on track to
reach the low-to-mid 90s. Heat indices range 99-106F currently with
peak values around 108F so far. Looks like the current heat advisory
is well placed for this afternoon. As a trough swings through the
southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, this will bring
some weak lift to northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. Given
PWATs around 2.0 inches and reaching convective temps, we are seeing
some isolated showers and storms develop in this area. They will
remain pulse-y given little to no shear.
In the evening, the few showers and storms will dissipate as daytime
heating wanes. The remainder of the night will feature light
southerly winds and clear skies. Despite these conditions, ridging
over the region will keep overnight lows quite warm in the mid-to-
upper 70s over most of the area.
On Friday, as troughing over the southern Great Lakes continues to
push east, a cold front will sink south into central Indiana. This
will keep the majority of the showers and storms north of the region
along the front. However, with similar conditions to Thursday we
could see some isolated diurnal pulse showers and storms develop in
the afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be similar to
Thursday and dew points in the mid-to-upper 70s. Which places heat
indices in the 100-107F range for Friday afternoon.
Given heat advisory conditions over the same region as today, we
will be extending this heat advisory through Saturday 0Z. This
period does include the overnight, given little to no relief from
very warm low temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025
Ridging begins to re-amplify this weekend through early next week.
This will keep hot temperatures and high dew points over the region.
Heat indices will be 100-107F through the weekend and then
possibly 103-110F early next week.
A trough rides along the building ridge on Saturday. This will
remain north of the region, mostly. However, it will likely lead to
some weak lift over the region and bring some scattered diurnal
showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. This could be the
only day to likely bring a bust potential to higher heat indices.
Beyond Saturday, the forecast continues to trend drier. This will
allow a few days of drying and the region could likely see higher
temperatures early to mid next week, and therefore high heat
indices. Impacts from hot and humid conditions are expected to be
prolonged through the long term.
By Thursday through late next week, there has been a consistent
signal of a trough sinking south from Canada and bringing a cold
front through the Ohio Valley. This could bring the next chance for
showers and storms and a relief from the heat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025
VFR conditions remain over the region through this TAF period.
Currently a SCT-BKN Cu field has developed from 3-5kft. Some very
isolated showers are located over the northern half of the region
and will continue through the afternoon. In the evening, showers
will dissipate and winds will become light. In the morning, winds
will pick back up out of the southwest.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>040-
045>047-053-054-061>065-070>076.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079-
083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 3:36 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507241936-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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