LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:54 PM EDT
580
FXUS63 KLMK 221954
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Drier weather today and Wednesday with only a stray shower or
storm expected, mainly across south central Kentucky.
* Hot and very humid for the second half of this week into the
weekend, with prolonged impacts from heat possible.
* Multiple waves of showers and storms will be possible beginning
this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
The stationary front is located to the southwest of the region,
which leaves the lower Ohio Valley under continued easterly flow
through most of Wednesday. This will keep dew points in the low-to-
mid 70s, and therefore more comfortable conditions.
Overnight, skies will clear and winds will become light. This will
allow for some patchy fog to develop, especially in southern
Kentucky. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s in the
southwestern areas and mid 60s in the northeast.
Ridging will continue to build and shift east over the region, which
will increase heights and temperatures into the low-to-mid 90s. By
the end of the day, winds will veer to the southeast as high
pressure shifts off to the east and dew points will increase a few
points. Due to this, heat indices in the southwestern portion of the
region will be in the 102-106F range in the afternoon. A heat
advisory has been issued for Wednesday afternoon. Another heat
advisory will be issued for Thursday and likely over a larger area.
Expecting dry conditions to remain over the region for Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Wednesday Night - Thursday Night...
Upper ridging will continue to build and spread east, further
increasing heights and temperatures. At the surface, high pressure
will move to the east, which will allow for southerly flow and
moisture to return to the region. Dew points will increase overnight
into Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be in the low-to-mid 90s. Dew
points will be in the mid 70s. This will bring heat indices into the
103-107F range over the western areas, 99-104 over the central CWA,
and 97-102 over eastern areas. Expecting to see dry weather, but
wouldn't rule out a few isolated showers given the high PWATs,
hitting convective temperatures, and differential heating
boundaries.
Friday Night - Early Next Week...
Ridging will begin to flatten out and a series of shortwave
disturbances will bring daily chances for showers and storms. A cold
front will sink south into the central Ohio Valley and stall out,
which will lead to some moisture pooling over the lower Ohio Valley.
PWATs look to be 2.0-2.2 inches, which will likely lead to heavy
rainfall in storms. With broad ridging still over the region,
temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s during this
time.
Early next week, ridging begins to build over the central Plains and
will increase heights and temperatures back into the low-to-mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Scattered Cu between 2800-4000ft is over the region and will
continue through the afternoon before dissipating with sunset. Winds
will remain light out of the northeast through the afternoon and
then calm or light and variable overnight. Some light patchy fog
will be possible over the BWG area in the early morning. By mid
morning, winds will begin to veer to the southeast and south.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT
Wednesday night for KYZ029>031.
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ023-024-
026-027-061-062-070>073.
IN...Air Quality Alert from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT
Wednesday night for INZ077>079-090>092.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Wednesday for INZ083-089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:54 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507221954-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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