The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 20, 19:39z for portions of IWX
170
WUUS01 KWNS 201941
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VALID TIME 202000Z - 211200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 40529221 40759070 39148288 38518309 38248413 38398571
38768806 39969217 40529221
0.02 42047095 41577133 41447211 41597310 42067374 42847382
43517370 44586955 44536896 44266862 44076889 43766993
43407038 42727084 42047095
0.02 40970171 43070181 43870219 44450284 45090412 45170623
45790640 46360623 46560572 46840140 45869871 44859838
43589854 42469889 41639932 41139975 40850019 40780087
40970171
0.05 41850046 42210143 43080136 43410140 44220128 44440093
44500019 44329960 43799932 43159913 42579925 42219951
41850046
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 41177302 40947365 41677416 42247438 43417428 43997325
44557138 44736953 44446899 43876913 42897006 41957113
41647223 41177302
0.05 49330137 48640050 47349771 46389643 44789524 43849553
42929662 42149773 41359829 40589892 38559892 37929972
37620199 38110339 38640374 38750389 41400243 43200199
44770432 44740706 45190842 46050880 46880834 47390590
47890424 49260394 49850386
0.15 44439778 41569895 39730026 39170093 39070150 39080238
39540251 41550139 42940127 43750144 44800265 45090409
45160666 45710723 46290727 46780667 47339971 46429813
45319755 44439778
SIGN 40770086 40960171 41560140 42950128 43750143 44800265
45100414 45170621 45770640 46360622 46420413 45530151
44340036 43229984 41050006 40770086
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 40789074 40918777 40928724 40428377 40238230 39568057
38797964 38107897 37657859 36727809 35887854 35858165
38399250 38799573 38889604 38969614 39129620 39239617
39449581 39779482 40519244 40789074
0.05 39897266 39737397 39527478 39577538 39697604 39747625
40097669 40607714 41237724 42037703 42847672 43797379
44627131 44816601
0.05 50080050 49079947 48049704 46839594 45629440 44649363
43789337 42809398 42519466 42059593 41799731 41379826
40579892 39499893 38579891 37939970 37620192 38120342
38400358 38620373 38760389 41350245 43180198 44750429
44740704 45190842 46060879 46880835 47930684 48620626
49940561
0.15 42176914 41097201 40507471 41067584 42047624 43527307
44177128 43967045 42966967 42176914
0.15 44780265 45090416 45170666 45720722 46280727 46770667
47339970 46429813 45349755 44479776 41679888 39680036
39190092 39080144 39090238 39550251 41580139 42890127
43730143 44780265
0.15 37228270 37458407 39338997 39878992 40098905 39958649
38968212 38468132 37898111 37488148 37228270
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 42146922 41097201 40507471 41067584 42047624 43527307
44177128 43967045 42976968
SLGT 39848994 40098904 39968653 38968215 38468132 37898111
37488148 37228270 37458407 39338997 39848994
SLGT 44439777 41699884 39790022 39170093 39060152 39080239
39540252 41620147 42320140 42970143 43730144 44800267
45090410 45170667 45730723 46290727 46780668 47329972
46409811 45319755 44439777
MRGL 39877287 39727401 39517480 39597544 39737624 40077667
40607714 41247724 42047702 42737672 43977326 44587137
44806589
MRGL 40779069 40938724 40388353 40248233 39568057 38607938
37667861 36727808 35897854 35858168 38309240 38799576
38889604 39049614 39239610 39419578 40509247 40779069
MRGL 50080049 49119928 48109713 46769581 45629440 44529355
43639338 42809397 42489475 42049594 41819723 41379827
40589893 39819893 39189894 38569891 37949970 37620195
38130341 38640374 38750389 41360245 43200199 44750430
44740706 45190842 46050880 46880834 47890689 48640625
49950562
TSTM 28229540 29479593 30479624 31239598 31649554 33059370
33149333 33399235 33759206 34049194 34519217 35119268
35689296 36009283 36369228 36609115 36799008 37208969
37439005 37499262 37449524 36739800 34359981 32130003
29230137 99999999 31421249 32121150 32611087 33041062
33351081 33921120 34621169 35151208 35421207 35671161
36341005 36610948 37190910 37650915 38100917 38751013
38821347 39071417 40141445 40781404 41271348 41911138
41630956 41110432 41390292 41840274 42550264 43330393
43950731 44170969 44161188 44171253 44251300 44311317
44461332 44751342 45351318 47451012 47720981 47970974
48230987 48371010 48461667 48291768 48041861 47901930
47831989 47912090 48242146 49412250 99999999 36991929
38061962 38511961 38741954 39041914 39391828 39551750
39621691 39491670 39211637 39031632 38531669 37591720
37251739 36661733 36271750 36061772 35841834 35971865
36991929 99999999 49849548 48489502 46059362 45109303
44629266 44319227 43499093 42988976 42628874 41808514
41548377 41428278 41398217 41508174 41788089 43367653
45037086 45306628
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE
HYA 15 S GON 15 NNE TTN 20 SSW AVP 15 SW BGM RUT MWN 25 NNW PWM 55
SE PWM.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
SPI 20 NNW DEC 20 NW IND 20 SSE UNI 15 ENE CRW 10 N BKW 20 NW BLF 45
ESE JKL 25 N LOZ 30 N ALN 15 W SPI.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
HON 15 ESE BUB 35 SE MCK 45 ESE GLD 25 SSE GLD 15 SSW ITR 25 NNW ITR
35 SW MHN 25 NW MHN 45 W VTN 25 SSE PHP 55 NNE RAP 45 SW 2WX 30 NNE
SHR 65 E BIL 65 W MLS 45 WNW MLS 55 WNW JMS 45 SE JMS 35 NW ATY 25 E
HON.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S
ISP 30 SE NEL 15 WNW ACY 10 SE ILG 35 W ILG 15 SE CXY 30 NNW CXY 15
W IPT 10 SSW ELM 20 NW ITH 35 NNW RUT 10 WSW BML 55 E EPM.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
BRL 40 SSW VPZ 45 NW CMH 30 NW ZZV 35 W MGW 30 SE EKN 35 SSW CHO AVC
15 E RDU 20 WNW HKY 25 SSW JEF 20 SSW TOP 25 WSW TOP 30 W TOP 30 WNW
TOP 25 NNW TOP 30 N IRK 25 E BRL.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 130
NNE MOT 70 NNW DVL 10 NNE GFK DTL 20 WNW STC 30 NE MKT 35 N MCW 20
NNE FOD 25 ESE SLB 20 NNE TQE 15 SE OFK 30 N GRI 10 SSE EAR 55 ENE
HLC 25 NNW RSL 20 SSW RSL 20 NE DDC 45 N EHA 10 NE LHX 45 NNW LHX 40
SSW LIC 35 ENE SNY 60 ENE CDR 65 ENE GCC SHR 40 S BIL 20 NW BIL 55
ESE LWT 25 SSW GGW 35 NNE GGW 125 N OLF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LBX 35 NW LBX 10
SE CLL 45 NW UTS 50 S TYR 35 SSE TXK 30 W ELD 30 ENE ELD 20 WNW LLQ
10 S PBF 15 SSE LIT 25 ESE RUE 30 NNE RUE 25 SW FLP 15 NE FLP 35 NNW
ARG 20 E POF CGI 30 WNW CGI 30 WSW TBN 20 SE CNU 25 N END 25 E CDS
30 SW ABI 30 WSW DRT ...CONT... 100 WSW TUS 30 W TUS 35 N TUS 60 WNW
SAD 70 E PHX 60 NE PHX 35 S FLG 25 W FLG 30 NW FLG 35 ESE GCN 85 ESE
PGA 65 SW CEZ 25 WSW CEZ 20 ENE 4BL 40 NNE 4BL 20 S U28 35 NW MLF 40
ESE ELY 45 SSW ENV ENV 50 NE ENV 45 NNW EVW 25 W RKS 25 E CYS 20 N
SNY 15 SSE AIA 30 SE CDR 55 NW CDR 35 E WRL 40 SW COD 35 SE MQM 30
SSW MQM 40 WSW MQM 45 WSW MQM 50 W MQM 35 SE SMN 30 WNW DLN 40 NW
LWT 50 NNW LWT 40 S HVR 25 SSW HVR 20 SW HVR 70 NE GEG 45 N GEG 50
SE OMK 40 SSE OMK 35 NNE EAT 50 NW EAT 60 SE BLI 40 N BLI ...CONT...
30 ENE FAT 60 SSE TVL 35 SE TVL 25 ESE TVL 40 SSW NFL 25 ESE NFL 15
WNW U31 20 NE U31 25 E U31 30 SW P68 40 SSW P68 40 NE TPH 35 SSW TPH
55 E BIH 70 NNE NID 40 NNE NID 25 N NID 40 WNW NID 45 NNE BFL 30 ENE
FAT ...CONT... 65 N RRT 35 SSE RRT 35 SE BRD 15 NNE MSP 35 ESE MSP
30 NNE RST 30 SSE LSE 25 WSW MSN 15 E JVL 35 SE AZO TOL 45 NNW MFD
15 W CLE 10 NE CLE 40 NNW YNG 25 NW SYR 30 NNE BML 45 NE EPM.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 20, 19:39z for portions of IWX (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250720_2000.html)
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