IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:59 AM EDT
953
FXUS63 KIND 101059
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
659 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog possible early this morning
- Mainly dry weather today and tonight
- Generally very warm/humid into next week; greatest rain/storm
chances through this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Skies have largely cleared early this morning as a dirty high
pressure filters slightly drier air into the region from the north.
Have continued to see a few showers briefly developing over
southeast portions of the forecast area. 06Z temperatures were in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The presence of the aforementioned high pressure should aid in a
relatively dry day as weak subsidence and a developing capping
inversion should keep all but a stray shower or two from developing.
The Ohio Valley remains within a sloppy and wavy flow pattern aloft
however...which could contribute to additional precip by predawn
Friday or perhaps more likely on Friday and into Saturday with the
approach of a stronger upper level wave into the Great Lakes.
For the short term...the current showers over Jackson County will
continue to drift southeast and are likely to not last long. The
bigger issue through daybreak is the potential for areas of fog to
develop with stagnant flow through the lower levels and remnant
moisture present within the near surface layer. To this point fog
has been localized but anticipate further expansion through daybreak
before diminishing quickly.
Much of the day will be quiet with abundant sunshine...light winds
and slightly lower humidity. Model soundings do support diurnal cu
development for the afternoon and despite the much drier...subsident
layer aloft and the cap noted around 700mb...there is likely to be
just enough instability to generate a stray shower or two for a
brief period late this afternoon. Most areas will remain dry but
this is enough to warrant very low precip chances for a couple
hours.
Cu will diminish near sunset with mostly clear skies returning for
the first half of the night. Another subtle wave aloft will approach
the region in the predawn hours and while the bulk of the upper
level forcing and deeper moisture will be displaced further north
over the Great Lakes...could see a few showers approach the northern
Wabash Valley towards daybreak Friday. Leaving a dry forecast at
this time with low confidence in this solution coming to pass.
Temps...low level thermals support highs relatively similar to
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
High humidity will continue in tandem with very warm to marginally
hot conditions into the middle of next week...as central Indiana
finds itself generally south of an somewhat active zonal flow
stretched along the Canadian border...yet north of any better-
organized portions of the subtropical ridge that will attempt to
build into the Midwest next week. Weak boundaries on the very
southern tier of waves passing closer to the Great Lakes, will
occasionally align closer to the Ohio Valley. Corresponding light W
to NW flow, which will be most prominent around the Sunday-Monday
timeframe should promote slightly milder readings peaking near the
mid-80s, and perhaps an overnight falling to the mid-60s for a
portion of the region. Otherwise upper 80s should be the rule
through the long term, with several days around 90F closer to the
Ohio Valley. Maximum afternoon heat indices should be highest on
Friday and Saturday, in the mid to upper 90s, courtesy of higher
dewpoints above 70F...and also Wednesday ahead of the long-awaited
Canadian cold front.
Daily opportunities for diurnally-driven convective scattered
showers and at least isolated storms will continue...with perhaps
more numerous coverage of showers when northern stream waves
approach the CWA both over the weekend and perhaps again at the end
of the long term ahead of possibly noticeably milder air. Associated
non-zero wind shear will introduce the potential for a few strong
storms Friday night, especially N/W of Indianapolis... before the
period's best opportunity for stronger storms, late Saturday as a
small short wave passes, and then late Sunday when lift from the
associated boundary may combine with decent wind shear.
Expect any TRWs Monday-Tuesday to be a less-organized, typical
midsummer type. Greatest threats from most storms will be
lightning, torrential downpours, and localized flooding...with a few
stronger cells this weekend perhaps capable of producing minor
damage.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 659 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Impacts:
- Brief IFR/LIFR conditions in fog possible before 13Z...especially
in low lying areas near KLAF/KBMG
Discussion:
Mainly clear skies with near calm winds will be the rule early
today. Abundant moisture still present in the near surface layer
will promote fog with visibilities possibly dropping briefly to LIFR
at KLAF/KBMG through 13Z.
Diurnal cumulus is likely this afternoon...yet the presence of a mid
level cap amid weak ridging will likely thwart formation of any rain
showers...with cumulus to diminish near sunset. Fair conditions to
continue this evening amid light/variable winds.
Generally light winds through the TAF period will be sustained
around 6-8KT this afternoon from 240-260 degrees.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:59 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202507101059-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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