CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 28, 9:25 AM EDT
056
FXUS61 KCLE 281325
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Quebec will move a cold front east across the area
this morning, settling near the Ohio River this afternoon. Late
tonight into Sunday, this boundary will lift north as a warm front
followed by a cold front moving east late Monday into Tuesday. High
pressure returns midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
925 AM Update...
Bumped up the POPs over the next few hours based on radar
trends, but the morning activity here should represent the bulk
of the rain chances for the day as it pushes off to the
southeast.
Previous Discussion...
A low pressure currently centered over southern Ontario is
expected to move a cold front east across the area this morning.
Ahead and along this boundary, additional showers with an
isolated rumble of thunder are possible given the lingering
moisture and the mid and upper level support from a shortwave
trough. Currently showers are seen on radar across the eastern
basin of Lake Erie and just west of Dayton, OH. Showers are
expected to fill in along a line extending from those two areas
and push southeast out of the area by this evening. Given the
limited instability overnight and the quick departure to the
east after sunrise, not expected much in terms of impacts but
cannot rule out isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall. SPC has
highlighted the area in a general thunder outlook.
As this cold front pushes southeast, it is expected to stall across
southern Ohio leaving the remainder of today and tonight dry across
the area. A low pressure system centered over western Ontario is
then expected to lift this stalled boundary north as a warm front
Sunday morning. This will allow for a gradually return of increased
moisture and WAA across the area, but given little synoptic support
not expecting much in the way of precipitation in the warm sector of
the low through Sunday.
High temperatures today will climb in the low to mid 80s with heat
indices climbing into the upper 80s. On Sunday, temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 80s to low 90s. Good news is that
moisture values will take a bit to rebound, allowing for dewpoints
in the 60s and feel like temperatures near actual temperatures.
Overnight lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday night, PoPs should increase across the area as the cold
front and upper level trough move into the region. Given the timing
of these showers, not expected anything in terms of severe chances
Sunday night. On Monday, models suggest instability values rising to
around 1000-1500 J/kg but overall instability will be highly
dependent on how widespread showers become Sunday night. This may be
enough to result in some scattered thunderstorms, some that may
become strong, but confidence is low given the disjointed timing
between the arrival of upper level energy and peak instability
timing. On Monday night, the cold front driving much of this shower
and storm activity will push east as the parent low shifts into
Quebec and the trough pushes towards the New England Coast. Will
have to monitor the evolution of this system and any potential for
severe weather in the coming updates. The higher confidence threat
will be heavy rainfall given deep warm cloud layers and PWAT values
surging close to 2" again. Current forecast has approximately 0.5-
0.75" of storm total QPF across the area. On Tuesday, the cold front
will continue to push east, allowing for conditions to dry out from
west to east as high pressure pushes southeast across the area. The
entire area should be dry by Tuesday evening.
Highs on Monday will once again be in the mid to upper 80s before
returning closer to normal on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
80s. Overnight temperatures will be fairly mild falling into the
upper 60s to low 70s Sunday night before cooling and falling into
the low to mid 60s by Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is high confidence that high pressure originating from Canada
will persist Wednesday through Wednesday night, allowing for
widespread dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures across the
area. Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease on Thursday as
models begin to diverge in agreement on the timing of the next
system expected to impact the area. Opted to introduce chance PoPs
on Thursday afternoon given the potential for upper level energy
enhancing surface support then waned on PoPs overnight through
Friday to slight chance. Temperatures should remain more pleasant
and seasonal with highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid
60s. Models also suggest dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to
low 60s, providing a decent break from the very humid conditions the
area has seen lately.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Storms are developing over North Central Ohio this morning as a
cold front moves through the region. TS chances are already done
for the day at KTOL and KFDY with current radar returns
southeast of those terminals. The bulk of the convection should
roll through KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Severe potential with the
storms are very low but the impacts will be some brief IFR with
TS and rain. KMFD could see some stronger wind gusts around 30
kt in the next hour or two. The rain and TS potential at KCLE
and KERI is much more conditional. For KCLE, shower activity
northwest of KMFD should move east and clip the terminal, but it
may be just some MVFR rain as this portion of the line is
struggling. For KERI, it just comes down to whether or not any
rain or storms form near or over the terminal or if everything
stays southeast - given the conditional potential, have
maintained a PROB30 for TS there. The overall window for
convection is brief with everything likely southeast of the
airspace by 18z. High pressure building into the region will be
supportive of clearing conditions with west to northwest winds
through this evening. For tonight, conditions should clear with
calming winds and the atmosphere should decouple. With ample low
level moisture remaining across the region with the humid air
mass and many rounds of rain, fog potential tonight into Sunday
is elevated and suspect that there will be widespread IFR, if
not lower.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Monday
and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lake today and winds will shift from
the south/southwest to the west around 10 to 15 knots. Waves
will build to 2 ft or so for the eastern basin. High pressure
will enter for Sunday and flow should be light and offshore to
start before a lake breeze develops during the afternoon hours.
A warm front will cross the lake on Sunday night and south to
southwest flow will be favored through Monday evening. Winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots on Monday as a cold front
approaches. This front will cross the lake by Tuesday and west
winds 10 to 15 knots will be expected and waves will build to 2
ft again for the eastern half of the lake, but there could be
some potential for 3 ft waves. High pressure will enter for
Wednesday and west flow will diminish.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 28, 9:25 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506281325-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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