WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 27, 1:06 PM CDT
974
AGUS74 KWCO 271811
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #138 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
106 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding likely
WHERE: Eastern WV, western VA, far-western MD, and western PA
WHEN: Beginning this afternoon continuing through the evening hours
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 3", locally 4"+ (HRRR)
QPE: 1 - 2", locally higher (past 24 hours, MRMS QPE)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2"/hr (HRRR/WPC)
Soil Moisture: 60 - 75 % RSM (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Near normal(USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Convection developing across the area of concern will continue to
expand in coverage and intensity over the next several hours, likely
generating flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. This area
is particularly hydrologically sensitive as recent rainfall has
moistened soils, which will generate highly proficient runoff
processes into nearby creeks and streams. Of particular concern is
areas along the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, as the steep
terrain increases the likelihood of rapid onset small stream flooding
in portions of the Monongahela (WV/PA/MD) and Upper Potomac
(VA/WV/MD) basins. The HRRR-forced NWM has been indicating increased
probabilities of rapid onset flooding across the eastern WV Panhandle
and far northwestern VA, with peak flows expected this evening. The
higher probability increases confidence in the placement of greatest
impacts in this region. Rapid onset flooding probabilities will
likely increase across western PA as storms continue to develop.
Higher magnitude flows below 10% are noted in the aforementioned
region and in portions of western PA. Isolated areas of significant
flooding impacts are possible if heavier rainfall rates and/or
training convection materialize over headwater streams draining steep
terrain. Pluvial ponding in low-lying and areas of poor drainage in
urban centers such as Pittsburgh and Morgantown, WV are also
possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JDP
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...CLE...RLX...RNK...AKQ...LWX
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...ALR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 27, 1:06 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506271806-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
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