JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 7:00 AM EDT
081
FXUS63 KJKL 191100
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.
- Some storms today could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.
- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
the week, with heat then building during the weekend and
especially the first half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
The latest surface analysis shows a surface low parked over southern
Michigan. A stationary boundary is oriented to the northeast toward
the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front is extended
southwest through Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. A secondary
low has developed on the trailing cold front and is situated over
the Missouri/Kansas state line. Locally, upper-level right entrance
region dynamics is favoring widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity.
Through the remainder of the day, the cold front, that's draped
across the Midwest, will slowly track through the Commonwealth and
into the CWA. Along and head of the front, showers and thunderstorms
will be likely. Some storms, with this front could push severe
limits but widespread severe weather isn't expected as 0-3 km
effective bulk shear is relatively marginal and storms won't be able
to grow and strengthen. However, can't rule out a severe storm or
two. Also, the potential for hydro issues will once again creep up
as PWs are approaching 1.50" and heavy rainfall could lead to
localized water issues. Once FROPA occurs late Thursday night,
surface high pressure will build into the region and usher drier
weather and more seasonal temperatures into the region.
Overall, a stormy and rainy forecast period will exist. Highs for
today will be cooler as the cold front will cause temperatures dip
into the upper-70s to low-80s for Thursday. Temperatures will
rebound into the mid to upper-80s for Friday. Overnight lows will
start in the low 60s for Thursday night before climbing into to low
to mid-60s for Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
The surface high pressure that built into the region on Friday will
persist through much of the weekend and into early next week.
Accompanying surface high pressure, more summer-like temperatures
are expected through the weekend and into early next week. Highs are
forecast to be in the 90s for Saturday and remaining in the low to
mid-90s through the end of the forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms will return to the area beginning Tuesday afternoon
and continue through the rest of the forecast period.
In summary, surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s from Saturday through
the rest of the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s
to lower-70s. Shower and storms chances return to eastern Kentucky
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
Terminals are currently MVFR as showers and storms, associated
with an approaching cold front, move across the area. Through much
of the day, showers and thunderstorms will persist with sites
largely staying MVFR. However, this afternoon, CIGS will slowly
begin to improve to VFR as the front shifts off to the east and
surface high pressure builds into the region. Clearing skies are
forecast to build in and low level moisture will allow fog
development overnight tonight which could cause IFR/MVFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 7:00 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506191100-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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